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Trading Dynamics in the Foreign Exchange Market: A Latent Factor Panel Intensity Approach

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  • Valeri Voev

Abstract

We develop a panel intensity framework for the analysis of complex trading activity datasets containing detailed information on individual trading actions in different securities for a set of investors. A feature of the model is the presence of a time-varying latent factor, which captures the influence of unobserved time effects and allows for correlation across individuals. We contribute to the literature on market microstructure and behavioral finance by providing new results on the disposition effect and on the manifestation of risk aversion on the high-frequency trading level. These novel insights are made possible by the joint characterization of not only the decision to close (exit) a position, usually considered in isolation in the literature, but also the decision to open (enter) a position, which together describe the trading process in its entirety. While the disposition effect is defined with respect to the willingness to realize profits/losses with respect to the performance of the position under consideration, we find that the performance of the total portfolio of positions is an additional factor influencing trading decisions that can reinforce or dampen the standard disposition effect. Moreover, the proposed methodology allows the investigation of the strength of these effects for different groups of investors ranging from small retail investors to professional and institutional investors. Copyright The Author 2011. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com., Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Valeri Voev, 2011. "Trading Dynamics in the Foreign Exchange Market: A Latent Factor Panel Intensity Approach," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 9(4), pages 685-716.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:jfinec:v:9:y:2011:i:4:p:685-716
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/jjfinec/nbq033
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    Cited by:

    1. Katarzyna Bień-Barkowska, 2014. "“Every move you make, every step you take, I’ll be watching you” – the quest for hidden orders in the interbank FX spot market," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 45(3), pages 197-224.
    2. Vasios, Michalis & Payne, Richard & Nolte, Ingmar, 2015. "Profiting from Mimicking Strategies in Non-Anonymous Markets," MPRA Paper 61710, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Daniel W. Richards & Janette Rutterford & Devendra Kodwani & Mark Fenton-O'Creevy, 2017. "Stock market investors' use of stop losses and the disposition effect," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(2), pages 130-152, January.
    4. Forman, John & Horton, Joanne, 2019. "Overconfidence, position size, and the link to performance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 291-309.

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