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A Stochastic Price Duration Model for Estimating High-Frequency Volatility

Author

Listed:
  • Denis Pelletier
  • Wei Wei

Abstract

We propose a stochastic price duration model to estimate high-frequency volatility. A price duration is directly linked to volatility from the passage time theory for Brownian motions, and it possesses several advantages over returns for estimating volatility. We employ price durations in a parametric model that directly specifies stochastic volatility dynamics. Our approach allows us to estimate intraday spot volatility and our empirical results suggest the presence of important intraday volatility dynamics. We conduct an extensive integrated variance forecast comparison, which demonstrates the superior performance of our proposed models compared with other duration-based or return-based estimators.

Suggested Citation

  • Denis Pelletier & Wei Wei, 2024. "A Stochastic Price Duration Model for Estimating High-Frequency Volatility," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 22(5), pages 1372-1396.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:jfinec:v:22:y:2024:i:5:p:1372-1396.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/jjfinec/nbad029
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    high-frequency data; price durations; stochastic volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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