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Endogenous Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market

Author

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  • Leonardo Bargigli
  • Giulio Cifarelli

Abstract

We study two sources of heteroscedasticity in high-frequency financial data and estimate their contribution to overall volatility by means of a Markov switching (MS) structural VAR model. We achieve identification for all coefficients by assuming that the structural errors follow a GARCH-DCC process. Using transaction data of the EUR/USD interdealer market in 2016, we first detect three regimesof volatility. Then we show that both sources of volatility matter for the transmission of shocks, and that information is channeled to the market mostly through demand shocks. This suggests that, on the EUR/USD market, some liquidity takers (LTs) are better informed than both liquidity providers and those LTs who follow a feedback strategy.

Suggested Citation

  • Leonardo Bargigli & Giulio Cifarelli, 2024. "Endogenous Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 22(4), pages 773-807.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:jfinec:v:22:y:2024:i:4:p:773-807.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/jjfinec/nbad008
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    foreign exchange market; GARCH; heteroscedasticity; high-frequency data; Markov switching; SVAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis

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