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Mixed-Frequency Macro–Finance Factor Models: Theory and Applications

Author

Listed:
  • Elena Andreou
  • Patrick Gagliardini
  • Eric Ghysels
  • Mirco Rubin

Abstract

This article presents tests for the existence of common factors spanning two large panels/groups of macroeconomic and financial variables, and the estimation of common and group-specific factors. New analytical results are derived regarding (i) the difference in the asymptotic distribution of the test statistics when aggregating the data first and then extracting the principal components (PCs), or vice versa, as well as (ii) the estimation of the common factor and its asymptotic distribution, extending the work of Andreou et al. (2019). We find that although there is no empirical evidence for one common factor, with constant loadings, in the United States during the period 1963–2017, there is evidence of one common macro–finance factor during the pre- and post-Great Moderation regimes. The aforementioned approaches of estimating PCs yield almost identical common and group-specific (financial and macro) factors which turn out to be significant in predicting key economic indicators, such as real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and the CBOE Volatility Index, among others.

Suggested Citation

  • Elena Andreou & Patrick Gagliardini & Eric Ghysels & Mirco Rubin, 0. "Mixed-Frequency Macro–Finance Factor Models: Theory and Applications," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 18(3), pages 585-628.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:jfinec:v:18:y::i:3:p:585-628.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/jjfinec/nbaa015
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    large panel; unobservable pervasive factors; mixed frequency; canonical correlations; forecasting models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis

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