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Realized Covariance Tick-by-Tick in Presence of Rounded Time Stamps and General Microstructure Effects

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  • Fulvio Corsi
  • Francesco Audrino

Abstract

This paper presents two classes of tick-by-tick covariance estimators adapted to the case of rounding in the price time stamps to a frequency lower than the typical arrival rate of tick prices. Through Monte Carlo simulations, we investigate the behavior of such estimators under realistic market microstructure conditions analogous to those of the financial data examined in this paper's empirical section, that is, nonsynchronous trading, general ARMA structure for microstructure noise, and true lead--lag cross-covariance. Simulation results show the robustness of the proposed tick-by-tick covariance estimators to time stamp rounding, and their overall performance is superior to competing covariance estimators under empirically realistic microstructure conditions. These results are confirmed in the empirical application where the economic benefits of the proposed estimators are evaluated with volatility timing strategies applied to a bivariate portfolio of S&P 500 futures and 30-year U.S. treasury bond futures. Copyright The Author, 2012. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org, Oxford University Press.

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  • Fulvio Corsi & Francesco Audrino, 2012. "Realized Covariance Tick-by-Tick in Presence of Rounded Time Stamps and General Microstructure Effects," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(4), pages 591-616, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:jfinec:v:10:y:2012:i:4:p:591-616
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    2. Fulvio Corsi & Stefano Peluso & Francesco Audrino, 2015. "Missing in Asynchronicity: A Kalman‐em Approach for Multivariate Realized Covariance Estimation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(3), pages 377-397, April.
    3. Audrino, Francesco & Corsi, Fulvio, 2010. "Modeling tick-by-tick realized correlations," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(11), pages 2372-2382, November.
    4. Arnerić, Josip & Matković, Mario & Sorić, Petar, 2019. "Comparison of range-based volatility estimators against integrated volatility in European emerging markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 118-124.
    5. de Almeida, Daniel & Hotta, Luiz K. & Ruiz, Esther, 2018. "MGARCH models: Trade-off between feasibility and flexibility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 45-63.
    6. Audrino, Francesco, 2014. "Forecasting correlations during the late-2000s financial crisis: The short-run component, the long-run component, and structural breaks," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 43-60.
    7. Chiranjit Dutta & Kara Karpman & Sumanta Basu & Nalini Ravishanker, 2023. "Review of Statistical Approaches for Modeling High-Frequency Trading Data," Sankhya B: The Indian Journal of Statistics, Springer;Indian Statistical Institute, vol. 85(1), pages 1-48, May.
    8. Fresoli, Diego E. & Ruiz, Esther, 2016. "The uncertainty of conditional returns, volatilities and correlations in DCC models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 170-185.
    9. Arnab Chakrabarti & Rituparna Sen, 2023. "Copula Estimation for Nonsynchronous Financial Data," Sankhya B: The Indian Journal of Statistics, Springer;Indian Statistical Institute, vol. 85(1), pages 116-149, May.
    10. Mike Buckle & Jing Chen & Julian Williams, 2014. "How Predictable Are Equity Covariance Matrices? Evidence from High‐Frequency Data for Four Markets," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(7), pages 542-557, November.

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    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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