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The urbanising force of global warming: the role of climate change in the spatial distribution of population

Author

Listed:
  • David Castells-Quintana
  • Melanie Krause
  • Thomas K J McDermott

Abstract

We study the relationship between changes in weather patterns and the spatial distribution of population and economic activity within countries. Our unique global dataset combines climatic and census data for the period 1950–2015 with satellite data on built-up areas, and light intensity at night for the 1990–2015 periods. We establish a global non-linear effect of climate on urbanisation. In particular, we find that deteriorating climatic conditions are associated with more urbanisation. This happens across the whole urban structure, with urbanisation increasing in both smaller and larger cities. But, we also find that weather variation can alter the national urban structure, including the pattern of urban concentration, as well as the size, density and spatial structure of large cities.

Suggested Citation

  • David Castells-Quintana & Melanie Krause & Thomas K J McDermott, 2021. "The urbanising force of global warming: the role of climate change in the spatial distribution of population," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 21(4), pages 531-556.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:jecgeo:v:21:y:2021:i:4:p:531-556.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/jeg/lbaa030
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Giorgos Galanis & Giorgio Ricchiuti & Ben Tippet, 2022. "The Global Political Economy of a Green Transition," Working Papers - Economics wp2022_22.rdf, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
    2. Bluhm, Richard & Krause, Melanie, 2022. "Top lights: Bright cities and their contribution to economic development," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    3. Bruno Conte, 2022. "Climate Change and Migration: The Case of Africa," CESifo Working Paper Series 9948, CESifo.
    4. Marco Letta & Pierluigi Montalbano & Adriana Paolantonio, 2024. "Understanding the climate change‐migration nexus through the lens of household surveys: An empirical review to assess data gaps," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(4), pages 1234-1275, September.
    5. Kotlikoff, Laurence & Kubler, Felix & Polbin, Andrey & Scheidegger, Simon, 2024. "Can today’s and tomorrow’s world uniformly gain from carbon taxation?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    6. Rose, Julian & Bensch, Gunther & Munyehirwe, Anicet & Peters, Jörg, 2022. "The forgotten coal: Charcoal demand in sub-Saharan Africa," World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).
    7. Castells-Quintana, David & Dienesch, Elisa & Krause, Melanie, 2021. "Air pollution in an urban world: A global view on density, cities and emissions," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    8. Lohwasser, Johannes & Bolognesi, Thomas & Schaffer, Axel, 2025. "Impacts of population, affluence and urbanization on local air pollution and land transformation – A regional STIRPAT analysis for German districts," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    9. Marcos Sanso-Navarro & Guillermo Peña, 2023. "Long-run effects of floods at municipality level in Spain," French Stata Users' Group Meetings 2023 29, Stata Users Group.
    10. Yu-Ling Sun & Chun-Hua Zhang & Ying-Jie Lian & Jia-Min Zhao, 2022. "Exploring the Global Research Trends of Cities and Climate Change Based on a Bibliometric Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-19, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate change; urbanisation; spatial development patterns; urban structure; urban form;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure

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