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Optimal Public Investment in Resource-Rich Low-Income Countries

Author

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  • Aliya Algozhina

Abstract

Recent studies have found that resource-rich low-income countries are better off investing their resource revenues domestically rather than saving them abroad in a sovereign wealth fund (SWF). This paper finds an optimal rule-based policy of accumulating public capital and its associated public investment path in a perfect foresight general equilibrium model. The model has several specific features different from the existing frameworks: the policy rule for public capital is introduced. Public investment is inefficient and has its absorptive capacity constraint costs. External savings clear the government budget. There is a variable share of resource revenues to accumulate the SWF, and the natural resource sector is assumed to be capital-intensive with its foreign direct investment shock. Based on calibration for African countries, the study finds that the front-loaded public investment path is optimal given an initial one-period resource windfall, public investment inefficiency and absorptive capacity constraints in the economies. This result also holds under less productive public capital and more patient households, while a scenario of no resource windfall produces the welfare loss due to a steady increase in consumption tax to finance public investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Aliya Algozhina, 2022. "Optimal Public Investment in Resource-Rich Low-Income Countries," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 31(1), pages 75-93.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:jafrec:v:31:y:2022:i:1:p:75-93.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/jae/ejab016
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Algozhina, Aliya, 2022. "Monetary policy rule, exchange rate regime, and fiscal policy cyclicality in a developing oil economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    2. Wolde-Rufael, Yemane & Mulat-Weldemeskel, Eyob, 2023. "Is natural capital a blessing or a curse for capital accumulation in low income countries?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    public investment; public capital; absorptive capacity constraint; resource windfall; SWF; JEL classification: E22; E62; F41; H54; O55; Q32;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • H54 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Infrastructures
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa
    • Q32 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development

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