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Conflict and Coffee: Are Higher Coffee Prices Fuelling Rebellion in Uganda?

Author

Listed:
  • Erick Gong
  • Katherine A. Sullivan

Abstract

The relationship between income and conflict has been a topic of great interest in the political economy literature. A growing body of research has utilised within-country variation in conflict to address the concerns raised about the cross-country level studies on income and conflict. This study adds to this literature by examining the relationship between coffee prices and conflict across fifty-six districts within Uganda over the 2002–2014 time period. Using a difference-in-difference framework, we find that increases in global coffee prices lead to a higher likelihood of conflict in coffee growing districts. Higher coffee prices may relax credit constraints faced by rebel groups allowing them to finance armed conflicts. In addition, we find that higher coffee prices also lead to greater intensity in conflict as measured by both the number of conflicts and fatalities.

Suggested Citation

  • Erick Gong & Katherine A. Sullivan, 2017. "Conflict and Coffee: Are Higher Coffee Prices Fuelling Rebellion in Uganda?," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 26(3), pages 322-341.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:jafrec:v:26:y:2017:i:3:p:322-341.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/jae/ejx001
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ghoshray, Atanu, 2021. "Are coffee farmers worse off in the long run?," 95th Annual Conference, March 29-30, 2021, Warwick, UK (Hybrid) 311084, Agricultural Economics Society - AES.
    2. Ghoshray, Atanu, 2022. "Trends and persistence of farm-gate coffee prices around the world," 96th Annual Conference, April 4-6, 2022, K U Leuven, Belgium 321166, Agricultural Economics Society - AES.
    3. Jonah M Rexer, 2022. "The Brides of Boko Haram: Economic Shocks, Marriage Practices, and Insurgency in Nigeria," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(645), pages 1927-1977.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    conflict; commodities; rebellion; income shocks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade
    • Q34 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Natural Resources and Domestic and International Conflicts

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