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HIV/AIDS and Fatalism: Should Prevention Campaigns Disclose the Transmission Rate of HIV?

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  • Olivier Sterck

Abstract

Among non-specialists, estimates of the HIV transmission rate are generally upwardly biased. This overestimation may be perceived as beneficial because it increases the incentives to have protected sexual relationships. However, a fatalistic reaction may counterbalance this positive effect. Combined with the overestimation of the transmission rate, an occasional unprotected sexual encounter may induce the feeling that ‘the die is cast’, and hence lead to a permanent neglect of condom use. This paper proposes a theoretical model to predict this fatalistic reaction in both regular and casual relationships. Simulations of the model show that the expected transmission rate that would maximise condom use in high-risk populations lies between 0.55 and 8%.

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  • Olivier Sterck, 2014. "HIV/AIDS and Fatalism: Should Prevention Campaigns Disclose the Transmission Rate of HIV?," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 23(1), pages 53-104.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:jafrec:v:23:y:2014:i:1:p:53-104.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/jae/ejt018
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    Cited by:

    1. Laura Derksen & Jason T Kerwin & Natalia Ordaz Reynoso & Olivier Sterck, 2025. "Healthcare Appointments as Commitment Devices," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 135(665), pages 81-118.
    2. Konstantin Matthies & Flavio Toxvaerd, 2023. "Rather doomed than uncertain: risk attitudes and transmissive behavior under asymptomatic infection," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 76(1), pages 1-44, July.
    3. Mertens, K. & Jacobs, L. & Maes, J. & Poesen, J. & Kervyn, M. & Vranken, L., 2018. "Disaster risk reduction among households exposed to landslide hazard: A crucial role for self-efficacy?," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 77-91.
    4. Sterck Olivier, 2013. "Why are Testing Rates so Low in Sub-Saharan Africa? Misconceptions and Strategic Behaviors," Forum for Health Economics & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 219-257, September.
    5. David Mmopelwa & Oliver Morrissey & Trudy Owens, 2021. "HIV/AIDS and sexual behaviour in Botswana," Discussion Papers 2021-03, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.

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