Foolishness without consequence? From physical to virtual modeling in the history of military aircraft development at Saab

From Jim March we learned that organizational intelligence demands adaptation to the needs of a distant future as well as the efficient use of resources in the present. Commitment to new ideas that deviate from norm is necessary for long-term adaptation, but comes with great uncertainty as to if when or how success will come. This article uses a historical study of military aircraft manufacturer Saab to explore the transition from experimenting with physical models and dangerous test flights in the development of rather simple aircraft systems, to the development of complex integrated aircraft systems using virtual models that can be tested in a simulated world, thereby postponing choice and the need for commitment of resources in the physical world. We show how modeling techniques and tools were developed over five generations of aircraft to help developers represent and evaluate alternative ideas, in an increasingly realistic virtual reality, thereby reducing material and fatal consequences in aircraft development. We distinguish hybrid forms of evaluation and a transition that seems to be moving in the direction of “virtual online evaluation,” where empirically informed simulation models, based on real flight data reduces the fidelity gap between reality and representation. Drawing upon a selection of Jim March’s writings, we speculate what this transition implies for learning from experience and the possibility of foolishness without consequence.