Stage identification and strategy optimization of industrial evolution of China’s digital economy supporting low-carbon effect

Developing low-carbon economy is an inherent requirement for China's sustainable development, and digital economy is an important engine for China's economy to reduce carbon emission intensity in the new development stage. Identifying the industrial evolution law of China's digital economy is helpful to diagnose its development opportunity, tap the ‘green potential’ and provide strategic support for the digital economy to play the low-carbon effect. Based on the data of China's digital industrialization and industry digitization from 2001 to 2020, the development level of China's digital economy industry was analyzed by logistic curve estimation, and the evolution stage of China's digital economy industry was determined by the characteristic points of the curve. The results showed that, before 2008, China's digital economy industry was in the germination period; from 2009 to 2035, China's digital economy industry is in the period of accelerating growth; from 2036 to 2062, China's digital economy industry will be in the mature stage; after 2062, it will enter a period of decline. The above analysis results are basically in line with the requirements of China's ‘strategic plan to become a high-income country by 2035’ and ‘strategic goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2060’. Finally, according to the carbon emission reduction development demand of China's digital economy in the ‘growth period’, it is pointed out that it is urgent for China to continue to promote the construction of digital infrastructure, achieve green digital technology innovation, improve the social digital literacy level and increase the proportion of renewable energy application.