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Pandemics and regional economic growth: evidence from the Great Influenza in Italy

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  • Mario F Carillo
  • Tullio Jappelli

Abstract

We investigate the link between the 1918 Great Influenza and regional economic growth in Italy, a country in which the measures implemented by public authorities to contain the contagion were limited or ineffective. The pandemic caused 600,000 deaths in Italy: 1.2% of the population. Going from regions with the lowest mortality to those with the highest mortality is associated to a decline in per capita GDP growth of 6.5%, which dissipated within 3 years. Our estimates provide an upper bound of the adverse effect of pandemics on regional economic growth in the absence of non-pharmaceutical public-health interventions.

Suggested Citation

  • Mario F Carillo & Tullio Jappelli, 2022. "Pandemics and regional economic growth: evidence from the Great Influenza in Italy," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 26(1), pages 78-106.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ereveh:v:26:y:2022:i:1:p:78-106.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/erehj/heab009
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    Cited by:

    1. Enrico Berbenni & Stefano Colombo, 2023. "The impact of pandemics on labour organization: insights from an Italian company archive during the Spanish Flu," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 1-16, December.
    2. Doran, Áine & Colvin, Christopher L. & McLaughlin, Eoin, 2024. "What can we learn from historical pandemics? A systematic review of the literature," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 342(C).

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