Mediterranean agricultural trade problems and the effects of the EC policies

Trade of Mediterranean agricultural products between the EC and Mediterranean non-member countries has been affected by both the agricultural policy and the agreement policy of the EC. A statistical and econometrical analysis of the trade effects has shown them to be in favour of the Mediterranean regions within the EC for vegetables, tobacco and olive oil, and in favour of Greece, Spain, Portugal (G, S, P) for rice and wine. For wheat and fruit the results diverged per country. The agreement policy appeared to have prevailed over the CAP with respect to wine (G, S), fresh fruit (G) and citrus (S), and perhaps also for wheat. A further trade diversion and perhaps also trade creation in favour of Greece and Spain is to be expected after their entry into the EC. This probably will raise problems for the Mediterranean regions of France and Italy, especially with respect to wine, fruit and olive oil.