Forecasting changes in the agricultural structure: Three system simulation models

Summary Data from several studies of structural change in Swedish agriculture have been used in three simple simulation models. The first was built to examine the rapid expansion of the rented area of farms; the second model aimed at determining the prospects for part-time farming under varying conditions; and the third model was built to analyse alternatives for the future contraction of the farming population in sparsely populated areas and their consequences for the local economy. The basic component of these simulation models is the farmer model constructed on the basis of data from several empirical studies. This is combined with sub-models of the land and labour markets. Often the same kind of data are needed for building the three models. Experiments with the models show the possible effects of alternative policies. Although they are of a rather exogenous character the models give an interesting insight into current problems, disclose certain characteristics of the system's behaviour and point to areas for further analysis and for building more ambitious and complex models.