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Remodelling the Working–Kaldor curve: the roles of scarcity, time to maturity and time to harvest

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  • Katelijne A. E. Carbonez
  • Van Thi Tuong Nguyen
  • Piet Sercu

Abstract

To explain convenience yield accruing to commodity inventory holders, time to maturity (TTM) and TIME to harvest should interact with current scarcity. Using weekly data for corn, wheat and soyabeans (1986–2009), the interaction (multiplicative) model performs better than traditional versions that, at best, incorporate TTM additively and ignore harvests. Among the competing proxies for scarcity, the combination of spot price and inventory beats either spot price or inventory separately, but the pure spot-price version is a close second. Our model still exhibits a clear ‘Working curve’ pattern, with slopes changing with TTM and pre- versus post-harvest periods. , Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Katelijne A. E. Carbonez & Van Thi Tuong Nguyen & Piet Sercu, 2012. "Remodelling the Working–Kaldor curve: the roles of scarcity, time to maturity and time to harvest," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 39(3), pages 459-487, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:erevae:v:39:y:2012:i:3:p:459-487
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/erae/jbr061
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    Cited by:

    1. Fouquau, Julien & Six, Pierre, 2015. "A comparison of the convenience yield and interest-adjusted basis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 14(C), pages 142-149.

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