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Cointegration and Prediction Analysis of Market Supply in the Dutch Pig-Farming Industry

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  • Kuiper, W Erno
  • Meulenberg, Matthew T G

Abstract

In this paper we derive a restricted vector error-correction model (RVECM) to predict the Dutch gross indigenous pig production (GIP). For this purpose, we model the long-run supply behaviour of the producers of piglets and fattened pigs. We supplemented Johansen's maximum likelihood procedure with the asymptotic least-squares method to test the nonlinear cross-equation parameter restrictions in the long-run model. Our empirical results comply with the theoretical long-run model and show that the RVECM GIP predictions are slightly more accurate than the forecasts prepared by the Dutch Central Bureau of Statistics for the European Commission. Copyright 1997 by Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Kuiper, W Erno & Meulenberg, Matthew T G, 1997. "Cointegration and Prediction Analysis of Market Supply in the Dutch Pig-Farming Industry," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 24(2), pages 285-312.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:erevae:v:24:y:1997:i:2:p:285-312
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    Cited by:

    1. Jan Christensen & Lars Hansen, 2005. "Abatement costs of alternative tax systems to regulate agricultural nitrogen loss," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 7(2), pages 53-74, June.
    2. Bicknell, Kathryn, 2011. "The Distributional Implications for Higher Farm Animal Welfare in New Zealand," 2011 Conference, August 25-26, 2011, Nelson, New Zealand 115418, New Zealand Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.

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