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Convenience Yield and the Option to Liquidate for Commodities with a Crop Cycle

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  • Milonas, Nikolaos T
  • Thomadakis, Stavros B

Abstract

In this paper we present a simple model which explains convenience yields in line with Keynes' 'liquid stocks' theory. When the flows of demand and production of a commodity are not synchronised, stored inventories are the source of supply which absorbs demand fluctuations in periods between production times. Since negative storage is not possible, the likelihood of a stockout implies that spot price may rise above futures price between production times. We show that the yield on stored commodities has the payoff structure of a call option. Furthermore, the existence of this call option acts to counter the appearance of normal backwardation in futures prices. Empirical tests on four commodities offer supportive evidence of our theory. Copyright 1997 by Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Milonas, Nikolaos T & Thomadakis, Stavros B, 1997. "Convenience Yield and the Option to Liquidate for Commodities with a Crop Cycle," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 24(2), pages 267-283.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:erevae:v:24:y:1997:i:2:p:267-83
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    Cited by:

    1. Rau-Bredow, Hans, 2022. "Contango and Backwardation in Arbitrage-Free Futures-Markets," MPRA Paper 111688, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Athanasios Triantafyllou & Dimitrios Bakas & Marilou Ioakimidis, 2023. "Commodity price uncertainty as a leading indicator of economic activity," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 4194-4219, October.
    3. An-Sing Chen & James Wuh Lin, 2004. "Cointegration and detectable linear and nonlinear causality: analysis using the London Metal Exchange lead contract," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(11), pages 1157-1167.
    4. Zulauf, Carl R. & Zhou, Haijiang & Roberts, Matthew C., 2005. "Updating the Estimation of the Supply of Storage Model," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19122, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    5. Zulauf, Carl R. & Sanghyo, Kim, 2014. "Is Storage Rational When the Price is Expected to Decline? An Initial Study Using Data from U.S. Futures and Options Markets," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170593, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. Rau-Bredow, Hans, 2022. "Contango and Backwardation in Arbitrage-Free Futures-Markets," EconStor Preprints 249292, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    7. Awan, Obaid A., 2019. "Price discovery or noise: The role of arbitrage and speculation in explaining crude oil price behaviour," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 16(C).
    8. Tore S. Kleppe & Atle Oglend, 2019. "Can limits‐to‐arbitrage from bounded storage improve commodity term‐structure modeling?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(7), pages 865-889, July.
    9. Heaney, Richard, 2002. "Does knowledge of the cost of carry model improve commodity futures price forecasting ability?: A case study using the London Metal Exchange lead contract," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 45-65.
    10. Eleni Thanou & Dikaios Tserkezos, 2008. "Nonlinear Diachronic Effects Between Stock Returns and Mutual Fund Flows: Additional Empirical Evidence from the Athens Stocks Exchange," Working Papers 0826, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    11. Loizos, Konstantinos, 2011. "A Note on Chapter 29 of Keynes’s Treatise on Money," MPRA Paper 54022, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.

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