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Land Allocation under Consideration of Weather-Induced Crop Yield Variations: Decision Support by a Crop Yield Simulation and Risk Analysis Model (ERM)

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  • Goetz, R U

Abstract

This paper presents a PC-based crop yield simulation and risk analysis model for a single farm, with the weather as the stochastic component. The ERM allows the calculation of the distribution of the farm net returns for a specific crop-rotation plan. Compared to other risk analysis models, the ERM does not ask the user to supply recorded farm data related to the past nor does it employ a specific utility function. In the ERM, the farm-specific context is included in having the farmer specify the minimum, maximum, and average crop yield for four out of seventeen analyzed crops. The application of the ERM to an arable farm is demonstrated. Copyright 1993 by Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Goetz, R U, 1993. "Land Allocation under Consideration of Weather-Induced Crop Yield Variations: Decision Support by a Crop Yield Simulation and Risk Analysis Model (ERM)," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 20(2), pages 199-221.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:erevae:v:20:y:1993:i:2:p:199-221
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    Cited by:

    1. Renan-Ulrich Goetz & Alois Keusch & Joan Ribas-Tur, 2005. "The Efficiency of Direct Payments versus Tax Reductions under Uncertainty," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 141(I), pages 115-127, March.
    2. Brennan, Donna C., 2002. "Savings and technology choice for risk averse farmers," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 46(4), pages 1-13.
    3. Zinnanti, Cinzia & Schimmenti, Emanuele & Borsellino, Valeria & Paolini, Giulio & Severini, Simone, 2019. "Economic performance and risk of farming systems specialized in perennial crops: An analysis of Italian hazelnut production," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).

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