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Exchange Rate Regimes and the Cross-Country Distribution of the 1997 Financial Crisis

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  • Grier, Kevin B
  • Grier, Robin M

Abstract

We study variations in the severity of the 1997 financial crisis in a sample of 25 developing countries. We use both currency depreciation and stock market returns as crisis measures. Our key findings are that countries that started 1997 with an exchange rate peg experienced significantly greater currency depreciation and significantly lower stock returns than would be predicted from the levels of various macroeconomic indicators. Copyright 2001 by Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Grier, Kevin B & Grier, Robin M, 2001. "Exchange Rate Regimes and the Cross-Country Distribution of the 1997 Financial Crisis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 39(1), pages 139-148, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ecinqu:v:39:y:2001:i:1:p:139-48
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    Cited by:

    1. Frankel, Jeffrey & Saravelos, George, 2012. "Can leading indicators assess country vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008–09 global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 216-231.
    2. Vietha Devia Sagita Sumantri, 2020. "Analysis Factors Affecting Indonesia Stock Market (Case Studies on Consumer Goods Index)," ACTA VSFS, University of Finance and Administration, vol. 14(1), pages 10-23.
    3. Christofides, Charis & Eicher, Theo S. & Papageorgiou, Chris, 2016. "Did established Early Warning Signals predict the 2008 crises?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 103-114.
    4. Koutmos, Gregory & Martin, Anna D., 2011. "Currency bid-ask spread dynamics and the Asian crisis: Evidence across currency regimes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 62-73, February.
    5. Ruoxi Zhang & Xue Li & Satish Chand, 2019. "An Early Warning Of An Impending Currency Crisis In China," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 64(05), pages 1101-1125, December.
    6. Jarl G. Kallberg & Paolo Pasquariello, 2005. "An Examination of the Asian Crisis: Regime Shifts in Currency and Equity Markets," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(1), pages 169-212, January.
    7. Chortareas, Georgios & Cipollini, Andrea & Eissa, Mohamed Abdelaziz, 2012. "Switching to floating exchange rates, devaluations, and stock returns in MENA countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 119-127.
    8. Ruoxi Zhang & Xue Li & Satish Chand, 2018. "An Early Warning Of An Impending Currency Crisis In China," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 64(05), pages 1101-1125, July.
    9. Jarl G. Kallberg & Crocker H. Liu & Paolo Pasquariello, 2002. "Regime Shifts in Asian Equity and Real Estate Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 30(2), pages 263-291.
    10. Mr. Abdul d Abiad, 2003. "Early Warning Systems: A Survey and a Regime-Switching Approach," IMF Working Papers 2003/032, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Khan, Saleheen, 2018. "Currency Crisis Transmission Through Trade Channel: Asian and Mexican Crises Revisited," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 33(4), pages 818-840.
    12. Jeffrey A. Frankel & George Saravelos, 2010. "Are Leading Indicators of Financial Crises Useful for Assessing Country Vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008-09 Global Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16047, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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