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Income Uncertainty and the Onset of the Great Depression

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  • Flacco, Paul R
  • Parker, Randall E

Abstract

Income uncertainty contributes substantially to explaining the fall in consumption that marks the onset of the Great Depression. Consistent estimates of the variance of income measure income uncertainty from 1921 to 1930 and are produced using a linear moment model. This series provides a statistical link between the large erratic savings in income uncertainty after September 1929 and the Great Crash in the stock market. Comparison of the behavior of income uncertainty in the 1920s to the pre-World War I and post-World War II eras suggests that the experience after the Great Crash was historically correct. Copyright 1992 by Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Flacco, Paul R & Parker, Randall E, 1992. "Income Uncertainty and the Onset of the Great Depression," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 30(1), pages 154-171, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ecinqu:v:30:y:1992:i:1:p:154-71
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. J. Peter Ferderer, 1999. "Credibility of the Interwar Gold Standard, Uncertainty, and the Great Depression," Macroeconomics 9907002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Edouard Challe & Xavier Ragot, 2016. "Precautionary Saving Over the Business Cycle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 126(590), pages 135-164, February.
    3. Pandey, Dharen Kumar & Lucey, Brian M. & Kumar, Satish, 2023. "Border disputes, conflicts, war, and financial markets research: A systematic review," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    4. Greasley, David & Madsen, Jakob B. & Oxley, Les, 2001. "Income Uncertainty and Consumer Spending during the Great Depression," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 225-251, April.
    5. Lilia Karnizova & Hashmat Khan, 2010. "The Stock Market and the Consumer Confidence Channel in Canada," Carleton Economic Papers 10-08, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised 26 Aug 2011.
    6. Mathy, Gabriel & Stekler, Herman, 2017. "Expectations and forecasting during the Great Depression: Real-time evidence from the business press," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 1-15.
    7. J. Peter Ferderer, 1994. "Credibility of the Interwar Gold Standard, Uncertainty, and the Great Depression," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_102, Levy Economics Institute.
    8. João Miguel Ejarque, 2009. "Uncertainty, Irreversibility, Durable Consumption and the Great Depression," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 76(303), pages 574-587, July.
    9. Lilia Karnizova & Hashmat Khan, 2015. "The stock market and the consumer confidence channel: evidence from Canada," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 551-573, September.
    10. Gabriel P. Mathy, 2020. "How much did uncertainty shocks matter in the Great Depression?," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 14(2), pages 283-323, May.

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