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Fear of Nuclear War and Intercountry Differences in the Rate of Saving

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  • Slemrod, Joel

Abstract

This paper demonstrates that, across nineteen OECD countries for 1981-84, a survey-based measure of the perceived likelihood of nuclear war is negatively correlated with the rate of net private saving, holding other determinants of saving constant. The estimates indicate that a 10 percent increase in the fraction of the population that believes a world war is likely is associated with a decline of 4.1 percentage points in the net private saving rate. This finding is consistent with other evidence based on U.S. aggregate time series and cross-individual data suggesting that fear of nuclear war decreases savings. Copyright 1990 by Oxford University Press.

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  • Slemrod, Joel, 1990. "Fear of Nuclear War and Intercountry Differences in the Rate of Saving," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 28(4), pages 647-657, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ecinqu:v:28:y:1990:i:4:p:647-57
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Barro, Robert J. & MacDonald, Glenn M., 1979. "Social security and consumer spending in an international cross section," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 275-289, June.
    2. Feldstein, Martin & Liebman, Jeffrey B., 2002. "Social security," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 32, pages 2245-2324, Elsevier.
    3. Martin S. Feldstein, 1977. "Social Security and Private Savings: International Evidence in an Extended Life-Cycle Model," International Economic Association Series, in: Martin S. Feldstein & Robert P. Inman (ed.), The Economics of Public Services, chapter 8, pages 174-205, Palgrave Macmillan.
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    Cited by:

    1. David E. Altig, 1990. "The case of the missing interest deductions: will tax reform increase U. S. saving rates?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 26(Q IV), pages 22-34.
    2. Hendershott, Patric H & Peek, Joe, 1992. "Treasury Bill Rates in the 1970s and 1980s," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 24(2), pages 195-214, May.
    3. Mensah, Edouard R. & Filipski, Mateusz J., 2022. "Saving for a rainy day: the impact of natural disasters on savings rates," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322266, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Koskela, Erkki & Virén, Matti, 1989. "Taxes, credit market 'imperfections' and inter-country differences in the household saving ratio," Research Discussion Papers 21/1989, Bank of Finland.
    5. Robert S. Pindyck & Neng Wang, 2013. "The Economic and Policy Consequences of Catastrophes," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 5(4), pages 306-339, November.
    6. Mario Seccareccia, 2005. "Growing Household Indebtedness and the Plummeting Saving Rate in Canada: An Explanatory Note," The Economic and Labour Relations Review, , vol. 16(1), pages 133-151, July.
    7. Marcella Alsan & Crystal S. Yang, 2024. "Fear and the Safety Net: Evidence from Secure Communities," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 106(6), pages 1427-1441, November.
    8. Russett, Bruce & Slemrod, Joel, 1993. "Diminished Expectations of Nuclear War and Increased Personal Savings: Evidence from Individual Survey Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(4), pages 1022-1033, September.
    9. Skidmore, Mark, 2001. "Risk, natural disasters, and household savings in a life cycle model," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 15-34, January.
    10. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1991. "Japanese Finance in the 1980s: A Survey," NBER Chapters, in: Trade with Japan: Has the Door Opened Wider?, pages 225-270, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Eckstein, Zvi & Tsiddon, Daniel, 2004. "Macroeconomic consequences of terror: theory and the case of Israel," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(5), pages 971-1002, July.
    12. repec:zbw:bofrdp:1989_021 is not listed on IDEAS

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