IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/cesifo/v69y2023i1p1-20..html
   My bibliography  Save this article

What Makes Discretionary Counter-Cyclical Fiscal Policy so Difficult? An Analysis of 32 OECD Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Jakob de Haan
  • Bram Gootjes

Abstract

We examine the stance of fiscal policy for 32 OECD countries from 1986 to 2023 by comparing for each country-year observation the signs of the output gap and the change in the cyclically adjusted budget balance. We find that fiscal policies are often pro-cyclical. We test possible explanations using comparative statistics for country-year observations with pro- and counter-cyclical policies. Our evidence suggests that fiscal rules and institutional quality are not related to the prevalence of pro-cyclicality. Likewise, several political-economy arguments suggested for explaining pro-cyclical fiscal policies do not receive strong support. However, poor access to finance makes fiscal policies more pro-cyclical. (JEL codes: E62, H50, and H62)

Suggested Citation

  • Jakob de Haan & Bram Gootjes, 2023. "What Makes Discretionary Counter-Cyclical Fiscal Policy so Difficult? An Analysis of 32 OECD Countries," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 69(1), pages 1-20.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:cesifo:v:69:y:2023:i:1:p:1-20.
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/cesifo/ifad001
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Barro, Robert J, 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1095-1117, Nov.-Dec..
    2. Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2006. "What matters for financial development? Capital controls, institutions, and interactions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 163-192, October.
    3. Philippe Aghion & Ioana Marinescu, 2008. "Cyclical Budgetary Policy and Economic Growth: What Do We Learn from OECD Panel Data?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007, Volume 22, pages 251-278, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Potrafke, Niklas, 2017. "Partisan politics: The empirical evidence from OECD panel studies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(4), pages 712-750.
    5. Giavazzi, Francesco & Alesina, Alberto & Favero, Carlo A. & Paradisi, Matteo & Barbiero, Omar, 2015. "Austerity in 2009-2013," CEPR Discussion Papers 10347, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Jacopo Cimadomo, 2016. "Real-Time Data And Fiscal Policy Analysis: A Survey Of The Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 302-326, April.
    7. Bergman, U. Michael & Hutchison, Michael, 2015. "Economic stabilization in the post-crisis world: Are fiscal rules the answer?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 82-101.
    8. Roberto Golinelli & Sandro Momigliano, 2009. "The Cyclical Reaction of Fiscal Policies in the Euro Area: The Role of Modelling Choices and Data Vintages," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 30(1), pages 39-72, March.
    9. Elva Bova & Paulo Medas & Tigran Poghosyan, 2018. "Macroeconomic Stability in Resource-rich Countries: The Role of Fiscal Policy," Journal of Banking and Financial Economics, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 1(9), pages 103-122, May.
    10. Ben S. Bernanke & Julio J. Rotemberg, 1997. "Editorial in "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 1-6, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Jaejoon Woo, 2009. "Why Do More Polarized Countries Run More Procyclical Fiscal Policy?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(4), pages 850-870, November.
    12. César Calderón & Roberto Duncan & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2016. "Do Good Institutions Promote Countercyclical Macroeconomic Policies?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(5), pages 650-670, October.
    13. Ben S. Bernanke & Julio J. Rotemberg, 1997. "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bern97-1.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gootjes, Bram & de Haan, Jakob, 2022. "Procyclicality of fiscal policy in European Union countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    2. Heimberger, Philipp, 2023. "The cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy: A meta-analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    3. Guerguil, Martine & Mandon, Pierre & Tapsoba, René, 2017. "Flexible fiscal rules and countercyclical fiscal policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 189-220.
    4. Thomas Brändle & Marc Elsener, 2024. "Do fiscal rules matter? A survey of recent evidence," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 160(1), pages 1-38, December.
    5. Brändle, Thomas & Elsener, Marc, 2023. "Do fiscal rules matter? A survey on recent evidence," Working papers 2023/07, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
    6. Combes, Jean-Louis & Minea, Alexandru & Sow, Moussé, 2017. "Is fiscal policy always counter- (pro-) cyclical? The role of public debt and fiscal rules," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 138-146.
    7. Kady Keita & Camelia Turcu, 2023. "Promoting Counter-Cyclical Fiscal Policy: Fiscal Rules Versus Institutions," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 65(4), pages 736-781, December.
    8. Sangita Misra & Rajiv Ranjan, 2018. "Fiscal rules and procyclicality: an empirical analysis," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 207-228, December.
    9. Itchoko motande Mondjeli mwa ndjokou, 2017. "Institutions and pro-cyclicality of fiscal policy in Sub Saharan Africa," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(2), pages 1365-1380.
    10. Ha,Jongrim & Ivanova,Anna & Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte & Unsal Portillo Ocando,Derya Filiz, 2019. "Inflation : Concepts, Evolution, and Correlates," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8738, The World Bank.
    11. Hoda Youssef & Ibrahim Elbadawi & Raimundo Soto, 2018. "Sovereign Wealth Funds and Macroeconomic Stabilization in the Home Economy," Working Papers 1175, Economic Research Forum, revised 29 Mar 2008.
    12. Aizenman, Joshua & Jinjarak, Yothin & Nguyen, Hien Thi Kim & Park, Donghyun, 2019. "Fiscal space and government-spending and tax-rate cyclicality patterns: A cross-country comparison, 1960–2016," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 229-252.
    13. Aygun Garayeva & Gulzar Tahirova, 2017. "Government Spending Effectiveness and the Quality of Fiscal Institutions," Business & Management Compass, University of Economics Varna, issue 2, pages 128-143.
    14. Weymark, Diana N., 2004. "Economic structure, policy objectives, and optimal interest rate policy at low inflation rates," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 25-51, March.
    15. McCallum, Bennett T, 2000. "Theoretical Analysis Regarding a Zero Lower Bound on Nominal Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(4), pages 870-904, November.
    16. Carlsson, Mikael & Westermark, Andreas, 2011. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve and staggered price and wage determination in a model with firm-specific labor," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 579-603, April.
    17. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Domenico Giannone & Eric Qian & Argia M. Sbordone, 2021. "A Large Bayesian VAR of the United States Economy," Staff Reports 976, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    18. Jordi Galí & J. David López-Salido & Javier Vallés, 2007. "Understanding the Effects of Government Spending on Consumption," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(1), pages 227-270, March.
    19. Antonella Trigari, 2009. "Equilibrium Unemployment, Job Flows, and Inflation Dynamics," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(1), pages 1-33, February.
    20. Katja Schmidt & Antoine Sigwalt, 2022. "Fiscal policy orientation in the euro area in real-time," Working papers 896, Banque de France.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal policy; economic stabilization; pro-cyclical;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:cesifo:v:69:y:2023:i:1:p:1-20.. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Oxford University Press (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.