Consistency of common spatial estimators under spatial confounding

SummaryThis article addresses the asymptotic performance of popular spatial regression estimators of the linear effect of an exposure on an outcome under spatial confounding, the presence of an unmeasured spatially structured variable influencing both the exposure and the outcome. We first show that the estimators from ordinary least squares and restricted spatial regression are asymptotically biased under spatial confounding. We then prove a novel result on the infill consistency of the generalized least squares estimator using a working covariance matrix from a Matérn or squared exponential kernel, in the presence of spatial confounding. The result holds under very mild assumptions, accommodating any exposure with some nonspatial variation, any spatially continuous fixed confounder function, and non-Gaussian errors in both the exposure and the outcome. Finally, we prove that spatial estimators from generalized least squares, Gaussian process regression and spline models that are consistent under confounding by a fixed function will also be consistent under endogeneity or confounding by a random function, i.e., a stochastic process. We conclude that, contrary to some claims in the literature on spatial confounding, traditional spatial estimators are capable of estimating linear exposure effects under spatial confounding as long as there is some noise in the exposure. We support our theoretical arguments with simulation studies.