Modeling effects of habitat structure on intraguild predation frequency and spatial coexistence between jaguars and ocelots

Species within the same ecological guild exhibit niche attributes that vary in association with their diet, spatial occupancy, and temporal activity to reduce competition. In the case of the tropical felid community, many species exhibit substantial overlap in these niche dimensions. Consequently, jaguars (Panthera onca) will sometimes kill the smaller ocelot (Leopardus pardalis) competitor in a phenomenon called intraguild predation (IGP), which is a major structuring force in tropical forests. We developed a spatially explicit agent-based model to understand IGP with the expectation that ocelots employ spatial avoidance strategies using available forest canopy as the more arboreal species. We parameterized model agents with realistic behaviors to replicate the real-world environment. Jaguar and ocelot agents were allowed to move, hunt, and reproduce with varying numbers, heights, and canopy thickness of trees as we recorded IGP events and ocelot canopy occupancy. We used structural equation modeling (SEM) to demonstrate how the number and height of trees significantly affected IGP occurrence. In accordance with our hypothesis, we found that the main contributor mediating coexistence between the two species was spatial avoidance of jaguars by ocelots by using available canopy refuges. Our modeling approach has broad application to different environments with similar intraguild interactions to predict the importance of forest structure and can inform policy directed toward forest management and habitat conservation.