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The Economics of Brazil’s Ethanol-Sugar Markets, Mandates, and Tax Exemptions

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  • Dusan Drabik
  • Harry De Gorter
  • David R. Just
  • Govinda R. Timilsina

Abstract

Sugarcane in Brazil is processed into sugar and/or ethanol, often in flex plants that can switch between the two products. We develop an economic model of flex plants, export demands, and two domestic fuel demand curves for a blend of ethanol with gasoline consumed by conventional cars, and ethanol consumed only by flex cars. We analyze the market impacts of the following policies: the blend mandate; fixing gasoline prices below world prices; the high gasoline tax; and a higher tax exemption for ethanol blended with gasoline. Because Brazilian and U.S. ethanol prices have become linked, a change in Brazilian ethanol policy or a shock in world sugar markets can now impact U.S. ethanol and corn prices. We show that in theory, each policy analyzed has an ambiguous impact on ethanol and sugar prices. Empirically, however, a low gasoline tax and a high tax exemption for ethanol used in the fuel blend reduce ethanol and sugar prices; this contradicts conventional wisdom. Overall, we find that policy reforms implemented in 2010 offset the ethanol price increase by about 27% due to outward shifts in fuel transportation and sugar export demand curves, and due to a reduced sugarcane supply caused by bad weather. Our model illustrates the importance of Brazil's ethanol policies on world commodity markets; it also provides insight into how the Brazilian government can adjust policies to better control domestic inflation while minimizing impacts on investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Dusan Drabik & Harry De Gorter & David R. Just & Govinda R. Timilsina, 2015. "The Economics of Brazil’s Ethanol-Sugar Markets, Mandates, and Tax Exemptions," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 97(5), pages 1433-1450.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:97:y:2015:i:5:p:1433-1450.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/ajae/aau109
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Karel Janda & Ladislav Krištoufek, 2019. "The Relationship Between Fuel and Food Prices: Methods and Outcomes," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 11(1), pages 195-216, October.
    2. Pouliot, Sébastien & Babcock, Bruce A., 2017. "Feasibility of meeting increased biofuel mandates with E85," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 194-200.
    3. Moncada, J.A. & Verstegen, J.A. & Posada, J.A. & Junginger, M. & Lukszo, Z. & Faaij, A. & Weijnen, M., 2018. "Exploring policy options to spur the expansion of ethanol production and consumption in Brazil: An agent-based modeling approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 619-641.
    4. Borko Stosic & Tatijana Stosic, 2024. "Dissecting Multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis," Papers 2406.19406, arXiv.org.
    5. Filip, Ondrej & Janda, Karel & Kristoufek, Ladislav & Zilberman, David, 2019. "Food versus fuel: An updated and expanded evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 152-166.
    6. Karel Janda & Ladislav Kristoufek, 2019. "The relationship between fuel and food prices: Methods, outcomes, and lessons for commodity price risk management," CAMA Working Papers 2019-20, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    7. Gallagher, Paul W. & Sleper, Daniel, 2016. "The market and consumer welfare effects of mid-level ethanol blends in the US fuel market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 149-159.
    8. Kung, Chih-Chun & Zhang, Liguo & Kong, Fanbin, 2016. "How government subsidy leads to sustainable bioenergy development," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 275-284.
    9. Ladislav Kristoufek & Karel Janda & David Zilberman, 2015. "Co-movements of Ethanol Related Prices: Evidence from Brazil and the USA," CAMA Working Papers 2015-11, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    10. Karel Janda & Ladislav Krištoufek & Barbora Schererová & David Zilberman, 2021. "Price transmission in biofuel-related global agricultural networks," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 67(10), pages 399-408.
    11. Machado Neto, Pedro Augusto, 2021. "Why Brazil imports so much corn-based ethanol: The role of Brazilian and American ethanol blending mandates," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    12. Lima, Cristiane Rocha Albuquerque & de Melo, Gabriel Rivas & Stosic, Borko & Stosic, Tatijana, 2019. "Cross-correlations between Brazilian biofuel and food market: Ethanol versus sugar," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 513(C), pages 687-693.
    13. Capitani, Daniel H D & Gaio, Luiz Eduardo & Mattos, Fabio L. & Franco Da Silveira, Rodrigo Lanna & Cruz, Jose Cesar, 2024. "Corn ethanol expansion in Brazil: Are volatility interconnectedness changing?," 2024 Annual Meeting, July 28-30, New Orleans, LA 343612, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    14. Ondřej Filip & Karel Janda & Ladislav Krištoufek, 2018. "Ceny biopaliv a souvisejících komodit: analýza s použitím metod minimální kostry grafu a hierarchických stromů [Prices of Biofuels and Related Commodities: an Analysis Using Methods of Minimum Span," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2018(2), pages 218-239.

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