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Disease Forecasts and Livestock Health Disclosure: A Shepherd's Dilemma

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  • Glenn Sheriff
  • Daniel Osgood

Abstract

We analyze how to induce sellers to disclose food safety. With repeated interactions and safety correlated over time, cash transfers alone do not ensure disclosure. Perfect, but costly, testing ensures disclosure with a complex lottery that may be difficult to implement in practice. In contrast, even a noisy quality forecast allows the buyer to induce perfect disclosure with a simple pricing scheme. Forecast introduction may benefit or harm sellers. After introduction, sellers may suffer from increases in forecast precision. As an illustration, we cast our model in the context of Rift Valley fever in an East African livestock market. Copyright 2010, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Glenn Sheriff & Daniel Osgood, 2010. "Disease Forecasts and Livestock Health Disclosure: A Shepherd's Dilemma," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 92(3), pages 776-788.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:92:y:2010:i:3:p:776-788
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/ajae/aap042
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Saak, Alexander E., 2012. "Infectious disease detection with private information:," IFPRI discussion papers 1162, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. M. Enenkel & M. E. Brown & J. V. Vogt & J. L. McCarty & A. Reid Bell & D. Guha-Sapir & W. Dorigo & K. Vasilaky & M. Svoboda & R. Bonifacio & M. Anderson & C. Funk & D. Osgood & C. Hain & P. Vinck, 2020. "Why predict climate hazards if we need to understand impacts? Putting humans back into the drought equation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(3), pages 1161-1176, October.
    3. Linda Fernandez & Glenn Sheriff, 2013. "Optimal Border Policies for Invasive Species Under Asymmetric Information," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 56(1), pages 27-45, September.
    4. Tong Wang & David A. Hennessy, 2012. "Modeling Interdependent Participation Incentives: Dynamics of a Voluntary Livestock Disease Control Program," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 12-wp527, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    5. Hennessy, David A. & Rault, Arnaud, 2023. "On systematically insufficient biosecurity actions and policies to manage infectious animal disease," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    6. Horan, Richard D. & Fenichel, Eli P. & Finnoff, David & Wolf, Christopher A., 2015. "Managing dynamic epidemiological risks through trade," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 192-207.

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