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Dynamics of Agricultural Technology Adoption: Age Structure, Reversibility, and Uncertainty

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  • Kenneth A. Baerenklau
  • Keith C. Knapp

Abstract

We develop a dynamic model of technology adoption that generalizes previous literature by incorporating technology age, reversible investment, variable inputs and outputs, and stochastic prices. The model is calibrated for irrigated cotton production in California. Optimal investment exhibits a significant vintage capital effect which provides a new candidate explanation for delayed technology diffusion. We show that the hurdle rate derived by option value models can be partially explained by the assumption of irreversible investment, and simulations demonstrate this assumption has regional policy relevance. Uncertainty affects optimal investment but has a declining effect with technology age. Copyright 2007, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Kenneth A. Baerenklau & Keith C. Knapp, 2007. "Dynamics of Agricultural Technology Adoption: Age Structure, Reversibility, and Uncertainty," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 89(1), pages 190-201.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:89:y:2007:i:1:p:190-201
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1467-8276.2007.00972.x
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    1. Kuehne, Geoff & Llewellyn, Rick & Pannell, David J. & Wilkinson, Roger & Dolling, Perry & Ouzman, Jackie & Ewing, Mike, 2017. "Predicting farmer uptake of new agricultural practices: A tool for research, extension and policy," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 115-125.
    2. Xie, Yang & Zilberman, David, 2015. "Water-Storage Capacities versus Water-Use Efficiency: Substitutes or Complements?," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211894, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Sauer, Johannes & Zilberman, David, 2009. "Innovation Behaviour At Farm Level – Selection And Identification," 83rd Annual Conference, March 30 - April 1, 2009, Dublin, Ireland 51073, Agricultural Economics Society.
    4. Daniel Cooley & Steven M. Smith, 2022. "Center Pivot Irrigation Systems as a Form of Drought Risk Mitigation in Humid Regions," NBER Chapters, in: American Agriculture, Water Resources, and Climate Change, pages 135-171, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Hunecke, Claudia & Engler, Alejandra & Jara-Rojas, Roberto & Poortvliet, P. Marijn, 2017. "Understanding the role of social capital in adoption decisions: An application to irrigation technology," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 221-231.
    6. Ihli, Hanna Julia & Maart, Syster Christin & Musshoff, Oliver, 2012. "Investment and Disinvestment in Irrigation Technology – An Experimental Analysis of Farmers’ Decision Behavior –," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124532, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Chi H. Truong, 2014. "A Two Factor Model for Water Prices and Its Implications for Evaluating Real Options and Other Water Price Derivatives," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 62(1), pages 23-45, March.
    8. Sauer, J. & Zilbermann, D., 2010. "Innovation Behaviour At Farm Level – Selection And Identification," Proceedings “Schriften der Gesellschaft für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaues e.V.”, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA), vol. 45, March.
    9. Karina Schoengold & David L. Sunding, 2014. "The impact of water price uncertainty on the adoption of precision irrigation systems," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(6), pages 729-743, November.
    10. Fang, Lan & Fu, Yong & Chen, Shaojian & Mao, Hui, 2021. "Can water rights trading pilot policy ensure food security in China? Based on the difference-in-differences method," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 23(6), pages 1415-1434.
    11. Lee, Jongkuk & Palekar, Udatta S. & Qualls, William, 2011. "Supply chain efficiency and security: Coordination for collaborative investment in technology," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 210(3), pages 568-578, May.
    12. Shi Zheng & Pei Xu & Zhigang Wang, 2012. "Farmers' adoption of new plant varieties under variety property right protection," China Agricultural Economic Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 4(1), pages 124-140, January.
    13. Xie, Yang & Zilberman, David, 2014. "The Economics of Water Project Capacities under Optimal Water Inventory Management," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt6c24636b, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    14. Ridier, Aude & Chaib, Karim & Roussy, Caroline, 2012. "The adoption of innovative cropping systems under price and production risks: a dynamic model of crop rotation choice," 123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland 122440, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    15. Mitchell, Paul D. & Rejesus, Roderick M. & Coble, Keith H. & Knight, Thomas O., 2010. "A Real Options Framework for Analyzing Program Participation as Human Capital Investments: The Case of the Average Crop Revenue Election (ACRE) Program," Staff Papers 92896, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    16. Arthur Bragança & Avery Simon Cohn, 2019. "Predicting Intensification on the Brazilian Agricultural Frontier: Combining Evidence from Lab-In-The-Field Experiments and Household Surveys," Land, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-22, January.
    17. Tanko, Mohammed, 2022. "Nexus of risk preference, culture and religion in the adoption of improved rice varieties: Evidence from Northern Ghana," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    18. Sauer, Johannes & Zilberman, David, 2009. "Innovation behaviour at micro level - selection and identification," CUDARE Working Papers 120636, University of California, Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    19. Benmehaia, Amine M. & Brabez, Fatima, 2017. "The Socioeconomic Determinants Of Asset Control Choices In Algerian Agriculture," Review of Agricultural and Applied Economics (RAAE), Faculty of Economics and Management, Slovak Agricultural University in Nitra, vol. 20(1), April.
    20. McClintock, Anthea, 2009. "Investment in irrigation technology: an application of real options analysis," 2009 Conference (53rd), February 11-13, 2009, Cairns, Australia 47934, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    21. Guang Chen & Yue Deng & Apurbo Sarkar & Zhengbing Wang, 2022. "An Integrated Assessment of Different Types of Environment-Friendly Technological Progress and Their Spatial Spillover Effects in the Chinese Agriculture Sector," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-24, July.

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