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Capturing Experts' Uncertainty in Welfare Analysis: An Application to Organophosphate use Regulation in U.S. Apple Production

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  • Jutta Roosen
  • David A. Hennessy

Abstract

The use of organophosphate insecticides in apple production has become of regulatory concern since the Food Quality Protection Act passed into law in 1996. Through an expert opinion survey, we assess the economic impact of possible regulatory scenarios on the apple industry. Because experts are unsure of the impacts, we ask them for distributions of impacts to explicitly capture the uncertainty they face. We apply Bayesian methods to aggregate these distributions. Welfare impact distributions for different policy scenarios are estimated and ordered using a nonparametric test for stochastic ordering of probability distributions to facilitate policy decision making. Copyright 2001, Oxford University Press.

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  • Jutta Roosen & David A. Hennessy, 2001. "Capturing Experts' Uncertainty in Welfare Analysis: An Application to Organophosphate use Regulation in U.S. Apple Production," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(1), pages 166-182.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:83:y:2001:i:1:p:166-182
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/0002-9092.00145
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    Cited by:

    1. Ragona, Maddalena & Mazzocchi, Mario, 2008. "Impact Evaluation of Food Safety Regulations: A Review of Quantitative Methods," 110th Seminar, February 18-22, 2008, Innsbruck-Igls, Austria 49887, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Roosen, Jutta & Hennessy, David A., 2001. "An Equilibrium Analysis Of Antibiotics Use And Replanting Decisions In Apple Production," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 26(2), pages 1-15, December.
    3. Ragona, Maddalena & Mazzocchi, Mario, 2008. "Measuring the Impacts of Food Safety Regulations: A Methodological Review," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 43864, European Association of Agricultural Economists.

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