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Cow Culling Decisions Adapted for Management with CART

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  • Russell Tronstad
  • Russell Gum

Abstract

A stochastic dynamic programming (DP) model of range cow culling decisions incorporating market price uncertainties and dynamics of biological productivity was solved for biannual and annual calving systems. Decision trees were generated from the DP solutions using the Classification and Regression Trees (CART) methodology. The decision trees captured over 99% of the optimal DP returns from both biannual and spring-only calving. CART culling criteria in conjunction with dual-season calving increased wealth by 7% compared to optimal DP culling decisions with spring-only calving, and by 10% compared to a more traditional strategy of culling all open cows.

Suggested Citation

  • Russell Tronstad & Russell Gum, 1994. "Cow Culling Decisions Adapted for Management with CART," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 76(2), pages 237-249.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:76:y:1994:i:2:p:237-249.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.2307/1243625
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    Cited by:

    1. Novak, Michael P. & LaDue, Eddy L., 1999. "Application Of Recursive Partitioning To Agricultural Credit Scoring," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 31(1), pages 1-14, April.
    2. J. Shannon Neibergs & Tipton D. Hudson & Chad E. Kruger & Kaelin Hamel-Rieken, 2018. "Estimating climate change effects on grazing management and beef cattle production in the Pacific Northwest," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(1), pages 5-17, January.
    3. Mathews, Kenneth H., Jr. & Short, Sara D., 2001. "The Beef Cow Replacement Decision," Journal of Agribusiness, Agricultural Economics Association of Georgia, vol. 19(2), pages 1-21.
    4. Dos Santos, Alecsandro & Anderson, John D. & Vann, Rhonda C. & Willard, Scott T., 2008. "Live Animal Ultrasound Information as a Decision Tool in Replacement Beef Heifer Programs," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(1), pages 335-344, April.
    5. Tronstad, Russell, 1995. "Importance Of Melon Type, Size, Grade, Container, And Season In Determining Melon Prices," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 20(1), pages 1-10, July.
    6. Ibendahl, Gregory A. & Anderson, John D., 2001. "Open Cow Replacement Decisions: an Application of Asset Replacement Theory," 2001 Annual Meeting, July 8-11, 2001, Logan, Utah 36184, Western Agricultural Economics Association.
    7. Cook, Billy & Biermacher, Jon T. & Childs, Dan, 2007. "PR - The Value Of Pregnancy Testing Spring-calving Beef Cows," 16th Congress, Cork, Ireland, July 15-20, 2007 345369, International Farm Management Association.

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