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Forecasting Halibut Biomass Using System Theoretic Time-Series Methods

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  • Keith R. Criddle
  • Arthur M. Havenner

Abstract

A new procedure introduced by Masanao Aoki uses the ideas of linear systems theory to identify and estimate time-series models. A slightly modified version of this procedure is used to forecast halibut biomass in total and by regulatory area and subarea, and the out-of-sample forecasts are evaluated for eight years. All models produce highly accurate forecasts of biomass, with errors well within the bounds required for setting catch limits in the following year.

Suggested Citation

  • Keith R. Criddle & Arthur M. Havenner, 1989. "Forecasting Halibut Biomass Using System Theoretic Time-Series Methods," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 71(2), pages 422-431.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:71:y:1989:i:2:p:422-431.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.2307/1241600
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    Cited by:

    1. Vinod, H. D. & Basu, Parantap, 1995. "Forecasting consumption, income and real interest rates from alternative state space models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 217-231, June.
    2. Masanao Aoki, 1991. "Two Complementary Representations of Multiple Time Series in State Space Innovation Forms," UCLA Economics Working Papers 628, UCLA Department of Economics.
    3. Homans, Frances R. & Wilen, James E., 1997. "A Model of Regulated Open Access Resource Use," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 1-21, January.

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