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A Stochastic Policy Simulation of the World Coffee Economy

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  • R. Edwards
  • A. Parikh

Abstract

The paper analyzes the structure of the world coffee market and suggests policies that stabilize the export earnings of coffee-exporting countries. The major cyclical characteristics of the coffee economy may be explained by a simultaneous equation model, which considers the lagged response of supply to price. The most successful policies include the development of rapidly maturing trees and the imposition of a quota on exports, both of which are effective in modifying the long-run cycle. A buffer stock policy is shown to be effective in eliminating short-run fluctuations, given sufficient resources.

Suggested Citation

  • R. Edwards & A. Parikh, 1976. "A Stochastic Policy Simulation of the World Coffee Economy," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 58(2), pages 152-160.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:58:y:1976:i:2:p:152-160.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.2307/1238965
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    Cited by:

    1. Palm, F C & Vogelvang, E, 1986. "A Short-run Econometric Analysis of the International Coffee Market," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 13(4), pages 451-476.
    2. Vogelvang, E., 1981. "A quarterly econometric model for the price formation of coffee on the world market," Serie Research Memoranda 0001, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    3. Mehta, Aashish & Chavas, Jean-Paul, 2008. "Responding to the coffee crisis: What can we learn from price dynamics?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1-2), pages 282-311, February.
    4. Lord, Montague J., 1986. "Market Price Models for Latin America's Major Commodity Exports," Working Papers 244235, Inter-American Development Bank.

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