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Allowing for Weather Risk in Assessing Harvest Machinery Capacity

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  • G. F. Donaldson

Abstract

To take account of the effect of weather on the cereal harvest, a simulation model is outlined in which rates of combine work, harvest weather, and diurnal grain-moisture content are regarded as probabilistic, with known distributions based on empirical data. On the basis of this data, the interaction of the variables is assessed over a thousand "years" of synthetic harvesting experience, in which the timeliness of the harvesting operation is assessed in terms of increased grain drying costs, and which is repeated to assess various policies which might be adopted by farmers. The results are presented as normative average total cost curves for various harvesting systems, based on the certainty equivalence of the decision under risk.

Suggested Citation

  • G. F. Donaldson, 1968. "Allowing for Weather Risk in Assessing Harvest Machinery Capacity," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 50(1), pages 24-40.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:50:y:1968:i:1:p:24-40.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.2307/1237869
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    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Bowen & Dennis, Elliott J. & Featherstone, Allen, 2022. "Weather Impacts the Agricultural Production Efficiency of Wheat: The Emerging Role of Precipitation Shocks," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 47(3), September.
    2. J V Caixeta-Filho, 2006. "Orange harvesting scheduling management: a case study," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 57(6), pages 637-642, June.
    3. Etyang, Martin N. & Preckel, Paul V. & Binkley, James K. & Doster, D. Howard, 1998. "Field time constraints for farm planning models," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 25-37, September.
    4. Markus Lips & Robert Finger & Pierluigi Calanca, 2008. "Potenzielle Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf Risiko und Kosten der Weizenernte," Journal of Socio-Economics in Agriculture (Until 2015: Yearbook of Socioeconomics in Agriculture), Swiss Society for Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology, vol. 1(1), pages 219-323.
    5. Alfredo de Toro & Carina Gunnarsson & Nils Jonsson & Martin Sundberg, 2021. "Effects of Variable Weather Conditions on Baled Proportion of Varied Amounts of Harvestable Cereal Straw, Based on Simulations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-23, August.
    6. Ryan, Timothy J., 1973. "An Empirical Investigation Of The Harvest Operation Using Systems Simulation," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 17(2), pages 1-13, August.

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