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Recreation Projection Based on Demand Analysis

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  • Wayne E. Boyet
  • George S. Tolley

Abstract

The first method of projection extends the Hotelling-Clawson model to include population and income as demand shifters. Price, population, and income elasticities of demand for visits to national parks are estimated, leading to projections of a 225-percent increase in visits by 1980. Partly because this method does not consider the distribution of income, a second method is developed based on visitation rates by distance-income-vacation classes. To project future population by income classes, maximum-likelihood estimators are developed of the mean and variance of the log-normal component of a state's income distribution. The second method is applied to an area recreation complex in western North Carolina and to recreation packages within the area. It suggests a more rapid increase in visits than the first method, due to projected rise in the proportion of the population in upper-income-vacation classes, which have high visitation rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Wayne E. Boyet & George S. Tolley, 1966. "Recreation Projection Based on Demand Analysis," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 48(4_Part_I), pages 984-1001.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:48:y:1966:i:4_part_i:p:984-1001.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.2307/1236626
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Wetzstein, Michael E. & Green, Richard D., 1978. "Use Of Principal Component Attractiveness Indexes In Recreation Demand Functions," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 3(1), pages 1-12, July.
    2. Kelly, William F., 1970. "Interrelationships Among Water-Based Recreation Areas," WAEA/ WFEA Conference Archive (1929-1995) 323636, Western Agricultural Economics Association.
    3. Wetzstein, Michael E. & Ziemer, Rod F., 1982. "A Truncated Regression Model Of Recreation Demand For California Wilderness Areas," 1982 Annual Meeting, August 1-4, Logan, Utah 279126, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    4. Farr, Marina & Stoeckl, Natalie, 2018. "Overoptimism and the undervaluation of ecosystem services: A case-study of recreational fishing in Townsville, adjacent to the Great Barrier Reef," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 31(PC), pages 433-444.
    5. Myles, George A., 1967. "Competitive Aspects of Recreational Areas," WAEA/ WFEA Conference Archive (1929-1995) 323561, Western Agricultural Economics Association.

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