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Analysis of a Dynamic Model, with Particular Emphasis on Long-Run Projections

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  • Shlomo Reutlinger

Abstract

The primary objective of this paper is to present to economists and students an efficient method for deriving long-run projections of many interrelated economic variables. Several useful equilibrium concepts are given precise definition. A simple set of supply and demand equations is used to demonstrate that mathematical analysis of dynamic econometric models is a powerful tool for projecting future time paths of certain economic variables. Short-run or impact multipliers and long-run multipliers are derived. Impact multipliers relate to the estimated effects of a change in the exogenous variables on the values of the endogenous variables in the current period. Long-run multipliers describe the estimated effects of a once-and-for-all change or continuous changes in exogenous variables on projected values of the endogenous variables. These multipliers are potentially useful in policy appraisal and long-run analyses.

Suggested Citation

  • Shlomo Reutlinger, 1966. "Analysis of a Dynamic Model, with Particular Emphasis on Long-Run Projections," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 48(1), pages 88-106.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:48:y:1966:i:1:p:88-106.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.2307/1236181
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    Cited by:

    1. Willett, Lois Schertz & Watanabe, Satoko, 1991. "A Comparison Of Simulation And Analytical Methods: A Case Study Of The Effects Of Decoupling On The U.S. Rice Industry," 1991 Annual Meeting, August 4-7, Manhattan, Kansas 271171, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    2. Tomek, William G. & Robinson, Kenneth L., 1977. "PART V. Agricultural Price Analysis and Outlook," AAEA Monographs, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, number 337217, january.

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