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Alternative Programming Models Involving Uncertainty

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  • William C. Merrill

Abstract

A multiperiod linear programming model, a stochastic programming model, and a "linear team" programming model are investigated to determine how they can be applied to a farm planning problem and how widely the optimal farm plans obtained from these models differ when actual data are used. Each model takes into account both time and uncertainty. Using data for an average farm in Yolo County, California, it is found that the optimal solutions obtained from these three models are not greatly different. The differences which do exist between optimal solutions can generally be traced to cash shortages. This result is partly due to the degree of diversification "forced" on the farmer by government production controls and recommended conservation practices as well as the wide differences that exist among the profitability of the activities considered.

Suggested Citation

  • William C. Merrill, 1965. "Alternative Programming Models Involving Uncertainty," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 47(3), pages 595-610.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:47:y:1965:i:3:p:595-610.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.2307/1236275
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    Cited by:

    1. El-Shazly, Fawzy A. & Mansour, Mahmoud E. E. & Ahmed, Mousa A. & Shehata, Emad A., 2009. "التركيب المحصولى المصرى فى ظل المخاطرة والمتغيرات المحلية والدولية [Egyptian Cropping Pattern Under Risk and Varying Domestic and International Circumstances]," MPRA Paper 42634, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 Oct 2009.
    2. Kolajo, Ebenezer F. & Martin, Neil R., Jr., 1987. "Farm Firm Decisions Modeling: A Methodological Evaluation Of Alternative Farm Growth Modeling Approaches," 1987 Annual Meeting, August 2-5, East Lansing, Michigan 269948, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    3. Jensen, Harald R., 1977. "PART I. Farm Management and Production Economics, 1946-70," AAEA Monographs, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, number 337213, january.
    4. Rae, Allan N., 1970. "Capital Budgeting, Intertemporal Programming Models, With Particular Reference To Agriculture," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, June.
    5. McCarl, Bruce A., 1986. "Innovations In Programming Techniques For Risk Analysis," Regional Research Projects > 1986: S-180 Annual Meeting, March 23-26, 1986, Tampa, Florida 271825, Regional Research Projects > S-180: An Economic Analysis of Risk Management Strategies for Agricultural Production Firms.

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