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Use of Simulation in Evaluating Management Policies under Uncertainty: Application to a Large Scale Ranch

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  • A. N. Halter
  • G. W. Dean

Abstract

Price and weather environment and decision-making processes are simulated for a large California range-feedlot operation; then DYNAMO programming is used to write the equations and to obtain the equivalent of 400 years of data by simulations on an electronic computer. Formulation of expectations of prices are the main managerial policies tested in the article, but the technique has broader applications to policies and decision making under uncertainty. A comparison among simulated net incomes is made over the period 1954–1963. It is concluded that relatively naive price forecasting methods are sufficiently accurate for the feeder buying decision considered here.

Suggested Citation

  • A. N. Halter & G. W. Dean, 1965. "Use of Simulation in Evaluating Management Policies under Uncertainty: Application to a Large Scale Ranch," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 47(3), pages 557-573.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:47:y:1965:i:3:p:557-573.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. MacAulay, T. G., 1972. "Simulation as an Aid to Decision Making," Working Papers 244697, University of Guelph, Department of Food, Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    2. Held, Larry J. & Helmers, Glenn A., 1981. "Growth And Survival In Wheat Farming: The Impact Of Land Expansion And Borrowing Restraints," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 6(2), pages 1-10, December.
    3. Richardson, James W. & Anderson, David P. & Peel, Derrell S. & Phillips, Mike, 1993. "Economic Incentives For Pst Adoption By Midwest Hog Producers," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 25(2), pages 1-11, December.
    4. Jensen, Harald R., 1977. "PART I. Farm Management and Production Economics, 1946-70," AAEA Monographs, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, number 337213, january.
    5. Johnson, S.R. & Rausser, Gordon C., 1977. "PART III. Systems Analysis and Simulation in Agricultural and Resource Economics," AAEA Monographs, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, number 337223, january.

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