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Decline in National Product Albeit by a Smaller Margin than in the Euro Area. Sharp Drop in Inflation

Author

Listed:
  • Christian Ragacs

    (Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Economic Analysis Division)

  • Klaus Vondra

    (Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Economic Analysis Division)

Abstract

According to the December 2008 outlook of the Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB), the Austrian economy is expected to enter into recession in 2009 as a result of the financial crisis and the global economic slump. On the strength of the buoyant first half of 2008, real GDP is projected to grow by 1.6% in 2008; in 2009, however, it will shrink by 0.3%. In 2010, the Austrian economy is expected to bounce back modestly, posting GDP growth of 0.8%. Compared with the OeNB June 2008 outlook, growth expectations for 2009 and 2010 were slashed by 2.0 and 1.6 percentage points, respectively. Owing to both commodity and oil price rises, inflation will reach a record annual high (since 1992) of 3.3% in 2008. In 2009 and 2010, however, it is expected to drop sharply to 1.4% and 1.6%, respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Ragacs & Klaus Vondra, 2008. "Decline in National Product Albeit by a Smaller Margin than in the Euro Area. Sharp Drop in Inflation," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 4, pages 10-37.
    • Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbmp:y:2008:i:4:b:1
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    File URL: https://www.oenb.at/dam/jcr:dc8b9081-6fad-414b-93be-58fab4ba5bd7/mop_2008_q4_in_focus_01_tcm16-97555.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Christian Ragacs & Klaus Vondra, 2009. "Economic Crisis Unleashes Deep Recession in Austria – Stabilization Expected at Year-End," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 6-40.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    forecast; Austria;

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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