IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/onb/oenbmp/y2004i1b5.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Inflation Differentials in Europe: Past Experience and Future Prospects

Author

Listed:
  • Balázs Égert

    (Oesterreichische Nationalbank)

  • Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald

    (Oesterreichische Nationalbank)

  • Maria Antoinette Silgoner

    (Oesterreichische Nationalbank)

Abstract

This paper analyzes past and potential inflation differentials for current EU Member States and the acceding countries. Although inflation differentials decreased significantly over the last ten years or so within the EU-15/EU-12 and the acceding countries, they are still on top of the policy agenda. Indeed there are a number of potential causes of inflation differentials. They range from cyclical factors via the exchange rate pass-through and oil price shocks to differences in productivity advances and changes in indirect taxes. Regarding the impact of these factors on inflation, a number of similarities can be found across countries. At the same time, because differences exist, e.g. in the cyclical position, the degree of openness, oil intensity or dependency as well as price and productivity levels, inflation differentials are not likely to vanish completely in the future. We also argue that the often cited catching-up factors, such as the Balassa-Samuelson effect, seem to be considerably weaker than generally believed. In addition, inflation differentials could be clearly associated with inappropriate national fiscal and structural policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Balázs Égert & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald & Maria Antoinette Silgoner, 2004. "Inflation Differentials in Europe: Past Experience and Future Prospects," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 47-72.
    • Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbmp:y:2004:i:1:b:5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.oenb.at/dam/jcr:fc707d3f-9bb8-407c-bce9-aede14894a1f/mop_20041_inflation_differentials_tcm16-19277.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fischer, Björn & Köhler-Ulbrich, Petra & Seitz, Franz, 2004. "The demand for euro area currencies: past, present and future," Working Paper Series 330, European Central Bank.
    2. Helmut Stix, 2004. "How Do Debit Cards Affect Cash Demand? Survey Data Evidence," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 31(2), pages 93-115, June.
    3. Orazio P. Attanasio & Luigi Guiso & Tullio Jappelli, 2002. "The Demand for Money, Financial Innovation, and the Welfare Cost of Inflation: An Analysis with Household Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(2), pages 317-351, April.
    4. Markus Knell & Helmut Stix, 2003. "How Robust are Money Demand Estimations? A Meta-Analytic Approach," Working Papers 81, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    5. Sheri M. Markose & Yiing Jia Loke, 2003. "Network Effects On Cash-Card Substitution In Transactions And Low Interest Rate Regimes," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(487), pages 456-476, April.
    6. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2002_010 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Jussi Snellman & Jukka Vesala & David Humphrey, 2001. "Substitution of Noncash Payment Instruments for Cash in Europe," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 19(2), pages 131-145, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Balázs Égert, 2007. "Real Convergence, Price Level Convergence and Inflation in Europe," Working Papers 267, Bruegel.
    2. Balázs Egert, 2007. "Real Convergence, Price Level Convergence and Inflation Differentials in Europe," CESifo Working Paper Series 2127, CESifo.
    3. Michal Franta & Branislav Saxa & Katerina Smidkova, 2007. "Inflation Persistence in New EU Member States: Is It Different Than in the Euro Area Members?," Working Papers 2007/10, Czech National Bank.
    4. Égert, Balázs, 2004. "Assessing equilibrium exchange rates in CEE acceding countries: can we have DEER with BEER without FEER? A critical survey of the literature," BOFIT Discussion Papers 1/2004, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    5. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Maria Silgoner, 2014. "Economic Growth and Inflation in Europe: A Tale of Two Thresholds," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(4), pages 843-860, July.
    6. repec:cnb:ocpubv:rb06/1 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:138:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:rre:publsh:v:36:y:2006:i:3:p:400-426 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Thomas Gruber & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald, 2005. "The Euro Changeover in the New Member States - A Preview," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 52-75.
    10. David Bounie & Abel François, 2006. "Les déterminants de la détention et de l’usage des instruments de paiement : éléments théoriques et empiriques," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 83(2), pages 159-176.
    11. Popović Svetlana & Janković Irena & Lukić Velimir, 2022. "Inflation and Inflation Differentials in Core Eurozone Countries," Economic Themes, Sciendo, vol. 60(2), pages 165-186, June.
    12. repec:zbw:bofitp:2004_001 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Maria Antoinette Silgoner, 2004. "Groth effects of inflation in Europe: How low is too low, how high is too high?," Vienna Economics Papers 0411, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.
    14. Markus Knell, 2004. "The Role of Revaluation and Adjustment Factors in Pay-As-You-Go Pension Systems," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 55-71.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. David, Bounie & Abel, François & Patrick, Waelbroeck, 2016. "Debit card and demand for cash," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 55-66.
    2. Snellman, Heli, 2006. "Automated teller machine network market structure and cash usage," Bank of Finland Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, volume 0, number sm2006_038, March.
    3. Columba, Francesco, 2009. "Narrow money and transaction technology: New disaggregated evidence," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 61(4), pages 312-325, July.
    4. Andrea Mercatanti & Fan Li, 2017. "Do debit cards decrease cash demand?: causal inference and sensitivity analysis using principal stratification," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 66(4), pages 759-776, August.
    5. John Bagnall & David Bounie & Kim P. Huynh & Anneke Kosse & Tobias Schmidt & Scott Schuh, 2016. "Consumer Cash Usage: A Cross-Country Comparison with Payment Diary Survey Data," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(4), pages 1-61, December.
    6. Rua, António, 2018. "Modelling currency demand in a small open economy within a monetary union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 88-96.
    7. Francisco J. Callado-Muñoz & Jana Hromcová & Natalia Utrero-González, 2014. "Effects of Institutional Environment and Technology Development on Payment Choice," Working Papers wpdea1403, Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona.
    8. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:82:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Tobias Trütsch, 2020. "The impact of contactless payment on cash usage at an early stage of diffusion," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 156(1), pages 1-35, December.
    10. Helmut Stix, 2004. "How Do Debit Cards Affect Cash Demand? Survey Data Evidence," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 31(2), pages 93-115, June.
    11. repec:zbw:bofism:2006_038 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Payam MOHAMMAD ALIHA & Tamat SARMIDI & Fathin FAIZAH SAID, 2020. "Investigating The Impact Of Atm And Pos Terminals On Money Demand In Nine European Countries In The Context Of A Random Effect Model As The Appropriate Panel Data Model," Regional Science Inquiry, Hellenic Association of Regional Scientists, vol. 0(2), pages 31-41, June.
    13. Yulia Titova & Delia Cornea & Sébastien Lemeunier, 2021. "What Factors Keep Cash Alive in the European Union?," De Economist, Springer, vol. 169(3), pages 291-317, August.
    14. Ulf Kalckreuth & Tobias Schmidt & Helmut Stix, 2014. "Choosing and using payment instruments: evidence from German microdata," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 1019-1055, May.
    15. Snellman, Heli, 2006. "Automated teller machine network market structure and cash usage," Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, number 2006_038.
    16. Cronin, David & McGuinness, Anne, 2010. "Retail Payment Practices. How They Have Evolved in Recent Times and Where They Might Be Going," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 56-82, April.
    17. Francisco J. Callado-Muñoz & Jana Hromcová & Natalia Utrero-González, 2012. "Transformation of payment systems: the case of European Union enlargement," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(18), pages 1787-1791, December.
    18. Ulf Von Kalckreuth & Tobias Schmidt & Helmut Stix, 2014. "Using Cash to Monitor Liquidity: Implications for Payments, Currency Demand, and Withdrawal Behavior," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(8), pages 1753-1786, December.
    19. Guerino Ardizzi & Eleonora Iachini, 2013. "Why are payment habits so heterogeneous across and within countries? Evidence from European countries and Italian regions," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 144, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    20. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2012_019 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Constanza Martínez Ventura, 2019. "The use of cash and debit cards as payment instruments in Colombia," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 90, pages 71-95, Enero - J.
    22. Guerino Ardizzi & Andrea Nobili & Giorgia Rocco, 2020. "A game changer in payment habits: evidence from daily data during a pandemic," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 591, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    23. repec:bdi:opques:qef_144_01 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Bar-Ilan, Avner & Marion, Nancy, 2013. "Demand for cash with intra-period endogenous consumption," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2668-2678.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation differentials;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:onb:oenbmp:y:2004:i:1:b:5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Rita Glaser-Schwarz (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/oenbbat.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.