Russian Banks on the Route of Fragile Recovery

Largely thanks to the recovery of the real economy, the situation of Russian banks has improved again. After month-on-month loan growth had quickly ground to a halt in late 2008, banks contributed to Russia’s deep economic slump in 2009. The share of nonperforming loans had tripled to 10% of total loans by late 2009 and has since remained at about this level. An incipient recovery of lending made itself felt only in the second quarter of 2010. However, as the national authorities had delivered a comprehensive policy response which helped sustain or reestablish confidence, Russia did not experience any major bank run or failure. Temporary deposit withdrawals after the collapse of Lehman Brothers were followed by a rapid expansion of deposits, starting from early 2009. Following a modest crisis-triggered rise, the share of foreign currency loans declined again to about one-fifth of total loans. Banks’ access to international capital markets improved from late 2009/early 2010. Profitability, having plunged to zero in mid-2009, subsequently recovered but is still modest. Thanks to recapitalization exercises, capital adequacy is satisfactory. The stabilization of the banking sector has allowed the authorities to start exiting from crisis response measures. Banks face a vulnerable environment given the world economy’s post-crisis fragility and Russia’s undiminished dependence on the oil price and capital flows, which is exacerbated by persisting structural weaknesses. Nonetheless, the existing shock-absorbing factors are sizeable.