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How can independent fiscal institutions make the most of assessing past economic forecasts?

Author

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  • Scott Cameron

    (OECD)

Abstract

Forecasts of economic variables like GDP, inflation and unemployment are the starting points for budget planning. Most OECD countries have designated an independent fiscal institutions to scrutinise or endorse the economic forecasts prepared by finance ministries. Although external assessments of past forecast errors can help uncover systematic bias or underperformance in official forecasts, there are several conceptual and practical problems with doing so that limit their usefulness. This paper describes the limitations of ex post forecast assessments and offers some suggestions on how independent fiscal institutions can add the most value in providing them.

Suggested Citation

  • Scott Cameron, 2022. "How can independent fiscal institutions make the most of assessing past economic forecasts?," OECD Journal on Budgeting, OECD Publishing, vol. 22(2).
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:govkaa:5aa7765a
    DOI: 10.1787/5aa7765a-en
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    surveillance of public finances; independent fiscal institutions; fiscal council; fiscal discipline; oversight of fiscal policy; macroeconomic forecasting; budget forecasting; fiscal forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
    • H61 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Budget; Budget Systems
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

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