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The subprime crisis: Size, deleveraging and some policy options

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  • Adrian Blundell-Wignall

Abstract

The paper revises our previous USD 300 bn estimate for mortgage related losses to a range of USD 350-420 bn. In doing this the paper explicitly rejects the previous approach based on implied defaults from ABX pricing, because these prices are affected by illiquidity and extreme volatility; they will likely lead to misleading estimates of losses. Instead it builds a proper default model approach and allows for recovery of collateral via house sales over time. The paper separates out the losses due to commercial banks in the US, and goes on to look at the implied deleveraging required to meet capital standards. It could take 6-12 months for banks to offset losses via earnings alone, depending on Fed rate cuts and the dividend policy of banks. Since even more capital than this is required if banks were to expand their balance sheets, the paper looks at possibilities for capital injections from groups like sovereign wealth funds; and it also looks at a novel plan for the use of public money with an RTC-style approach and the issue of zero coupon bonds. Finally the paper looks at the issues of moral hazard, the likely size of the impact in Europe and Asia and non-bank corporate leverage.

Suggested Citation

  • Adrian Blundell-Wignall, 2008. "The subprime crisis: Size, deleveraging and some policy options," OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends, OECD Publishing, vol. 2008(1), pages 29-53.
  • Handle: RePEc:oec:dafkad:5kzllc3r1346
    DOI: 10.1787/fmt-v2008-art2-en
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    Cited by:

    1. Schmidt, André, 2010. "Die Wirtschafts- und Finanzkrise aus neoliberaler Sicht und die Lehren für die Marktwirtschaft," Wittener Diskussionspapiere zu alten und neuen Fragen der Wirtschaftswissenschaft 3/2010, Witten/Herdecke University, Faculty of Management and Economics.
    2. Vines, David & Luk, Sheung Kan, 2011. "Financial-Friction Macroeconomics with Highly Leveraged Financial Institutions," CEPR Discussion Papers 8576, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Ioan Cucu, 2011. "The Role of the Management of Financial Institutions in Reducing the Effects of the Economic Crisis," Annals of the University of Petrosani, Economics, University of Petrosani, Romania, vol. 11(3), pages 47-54.
    4. Michler Albrecht F. & Thieme H. Jörg, 2009. "Finanzmarktkrise: Marktversagen oder Staatsversagen? / Financial crisis: Failure of markets or politics?," ORDO. Jahrbuch für die Ordnung von Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft, De Gruyter, vol. 60(1), pages 185-222, January.
    5. Harold M. Hastings & Tai Young-Taft & Chih-Jui Tsen, 2020. "Ecology, Economics, and Network Dynamics," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_971, Levy Economics Institute.
    6. Jan Hatzius, 2008. "Beyond Leveraged Losses: The Balance Sheet Effects of the Home Price Downturn," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(2 (Fall)), pages 195-227.
    7. Adrian Blundell-Wignall & Paul E Atkinson, 2008. "The Sub-prime Crisis: Causal Distortions and Regulatory Reform," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Paul Bloxham & Christopher Kent (ed.),Lessons from the Financial Turmoil of 2007 and 2008, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    8. Aldo Montesano, 2009. "Risk allocation and uncertainty: some unpleasant outcomes of financial innovation," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 56(3), pages 243-250, September.
    9. Blundell-Wignall, Adrian & Atkinson, Paul, 2009. "Origins of the financial crisis and requirements for reform," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 536-548, September.

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