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Assessing the Labour, Financial and Demographic Risks to Retirement Income from Defined-Contribution Pensions

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  • Pablo Antolin
  • Stéphanie Payet

Abstract

This article examines the impact of labour, financial and demographic risks on retirement income from DC pension plans, with a special emphasis on labour-market risk. It uses a stochastic model that incorporates uncertainty about returns on investment, inflation, discount rates, life expectancy, employment prospects and real wages. The analysis herein highlights that labour-market risk, as well as uncertainty about returns on investment and inflation, have the largest impact on retirement income. The results suggest that default life-cycle investment strategies that reduce exposure to risky assets in the last decade before retirement are quite helpful in reducing the risk of sharp reductions in retirement income, in particular when a negative shock to equity markets occurs in the years before retiring. However, life-cycle strategies fail to address issues of retirement income adequacy or smooth out the volatility in retirement income from DC pension plans.

Suggested Citation

  • Pablo Antolin & Stéphanie Payet, 2011. "Assessing the Labour, Financial and Demographic Risks to Retirement Income from Defined-Contribution Pensions," OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends, OECD Publishing, vol. 2010(2), pages 189-217.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:dafkad:5kggc0z23fr5
    DOI: 10.1787/fmt-2010-5kggc0z23fr5
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    Cited by:

    1. Pablo Antolin & Olga Fuentes, 2012. "Communicating Pension Risk to DC Plan Members: The Chilean Case of a Pension Risk Simulator," OECD Working Papers on Finance, Insurance and Private Pensions 28, OECD Publishing.

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