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Evaluating the Reserve Bank’s forecasting performance

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Reviews of forecast performance help to update the forecaster’s understanding of economic relationships and evaluate risks to the current outlook. This article compares the accuracy of the forecasts prepared for the Reserve Bank’s quarterly Monetary Policy Statement with that of forecasts obtained from a suite of statistical models. It also examines whether the pattern of forecast errors has changed following the Global Financial Crisis.

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  • Geordie Reid, 2016. "Evaluating the Reserve Bank’s forecasting performance," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 79, pages 1-14, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbbul:aug2016:13
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    File URL: http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/ReserveBank/Files/Publications/Bulletins/2016/2016aug79-13.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Alex Isakov & Petr Grishin & Oleg Gorlinsky, 2018. "Fear of Forward Guidance," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 77(4), pages 84-106, December.
    2. Adam Richardson, 2016. "Behind the scenes of an OCR decision in New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 79, pages 1-15, July.

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