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The Slope of the U.S. Nominal Treasury Yield Curve Unemployment and Stability of Wage Determination: United States versus New York State

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  • Jonathan Ohm
  • John Okpara
  • Martina Vidovic

Abstract

We find the Phillips-type model performs well in explaining wage adjustment for US non-farm business, US manufacturing, and NY manufacturing sector, showing a typical adjustment to price inflation expectation and labor market tightness. While the basic wage model shows evidence of a structural shift for the post-1991 period, this is not evident in the adjusted models for both US non-farm business and NY manufacturing, implying that the observed structural shift for the post-1991 period is likely to be the result of model mis-, or under-specification. The effect of the fraction of unemployment due to permanent job loss on wage inflation appears to be manufacturing-specific, while a smaller adjustment to price inflation expectation appears to be state-specific. On the other hand, the significant effect of the percent of adults unemployed appears to be a national phenomenon.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan Ohm & John Okpara & Martina Vidovic, 2010. "The Slope of the U.S. Nominal Treasury Yield Curve Unemployment and Stability of Wage Determination: United States versus New York State," New York Economic Review, New York State Economics Association (NYSEA), vol. 41(1), pages 3-13.
    • Handle: RePEc:nye:nyervw:v:41:y:2010:i:1:p:3-13
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