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Estimation of the impact of the USD/EUR exchange rate on the gross foreign exchange reserves� dynamics in Bulgaria

Author

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  • Silvia Trifonova

    (University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria)

  • Mihail Konchev

Abstract

The key objective of the paper is to examine the impact of the USD/EUR exchange rate on the gross foreign exchange reserves in Bulgaria. The reviewed period is January 1999 - October 2012. With this aim in our study the correlation between the USD/EUR exchange rate and the volume of the BNB�s external assets is estimated and analyzed, the most relevant model describig this relationship is determined and chosen and the model adequacy and explanation is defined. On this basis a forecast is made for the USD/EUR exchange rate monthly levels for the year 2013 and the expected volume of the country�s foreign exchange reserves for the same year is estimated according to the chosen model.

Suggested Citation

  • Silvia Trifonova & Mihail Konchev, 2013. "Estimation of the impact of the USD/EUR exchange rate on the gross foreign exchange reserves� dynamics in Bulgaria," Ikonomiceski i Sotsialni Alternativi, University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria, issue 4, pages 27-41, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nwe:iisabg:y:2013:i:4:p:27-41
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    USD/EUR exchange rate; foreign exchange reserves; forecasting; currency board arrangement; Bulgarian National Bank;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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