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Commodity Market Structure and Risk Factor Analysis in Bulgaria

Author

Listed:
  • Victor Yotzov

    (University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria, Economic Research Institute at BAS)

Abstract

Analyzing the Bulgarian raw material, crude oil and natural gas markets is an important step in setting up an early warning system (EWS). The Comprehensive Price Index is based on the weighting of imports from the energy and non-energy sectors, including the crude oil sector. The explanatory variables that describe the crisis index are analyzed and predicted by the ordered Probit model. The EWS system developed in this study takes into account the most important measurable variables that affect the raw material market, and based on this understanding, we focus on which variables can represent risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Victor Yotzov, 2021. "Commodity Market Structure and Risk Factor Analysis in Bulgaria," Godishnik na UNSS, University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria, issue 2, pages 1-53–73, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nwe:godish:y:2021:i:2:p:53-73
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    File URL: http://unwe-yearbook.org/en/journalissues/article/10481
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    raw material market; oil and natural gas market; early warning system; probit model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • Q31 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q32 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development

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