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Effects of Government Debt on Macroeconomic Activity (The Case of Bulgaria)

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  • Nikolay Velichkov

    (University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria)

Abstract

This paper studies the short-term and long-term impact of government debt on the macroeconomic activity in Bulgaria. The study is based on an econometric analysis that uses various estimation techniques to reveal the characteristics, the significance, and the quantitative expressions of the studied relationships. The empirical results show that short-term government debt increase stimulates real GDP growth. When long-term impact is considered, however, the stimulating effect of government debt growth on GDP dynamics is observed only up to a certain threshold level, beyond which debt increase produces adverse effects on macroeconomic activity

Suggested Citation

  • Nikolay Velichkov, 2016. "Effects of Government Debt on Macroeconomic Activity (The Case of Bulgaria)," Economic Alternatives, University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria, issue 1, pages 24-32, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:nwe:eajour:y:2016:i:1:p:24-32
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
    4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 573-578, May.
    5. Baum, Anja & Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Rother, Philipp, 2013. "Debt and growth: New evidence for the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 809-821.
    6. Caner, Mehmet & Grennes,Thomas & Koehler-Geib, Fritzi, 2010. "Finding the tipping point -- when sovereign debt turns bad," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5391, The World Bank.
    7. Nikolay Velichkov, 2015. "Fiscal Rules Versus Fiscal Discretions," Economic Alternatives, University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria, issue 3, pages 39-45, October.
    8. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1975. ""Rational" Expectations, the Optimal Monetary Instrument, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 241-254, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yu HSING, 2020. "On the relationship between economic growth and government debt for Bulgaria. Test of the Reinhart-Rogoff hypothesis," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(4(625), W), pages 187-194, Winter.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    government debt; macroeconomic activity; econometric analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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