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Challenges and Uncertainties in Forecasting Federal Individual Income Tax Receipts

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  • Parcell, Ann D.

Abstract

Forecasting individual income receipts has been greatly complicated by the receipts surges. First, the persistence of the surges has made forecasting the short- and long-term effects of the recent receipts growth especially difficult. Second, collections data are crucial to updating the receipts forecast. However, the receipts surges, in combination with tax law changes that altered the timing of tax payments, have changed the relationship between current collections and underlying tax liability. Data from aggregate collections and individual income tax returns confirm this changing relationship.

Suggested Citation

  • Parcell, Ann D., 1999. "Challenges and Uncertainties in Forecasting Federal Individual Income Tax Receipts," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 52(3), pages 325-338, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:ntj:journl:v:52:y:1999:i:3:p:325-38
    DOI: 10.1086/NTJ41789725
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    Cited by:

    1. Matthew D. Shapiro & Joel Slemrod, 2003. "Did the 2001 Tax Rebate Stimulate Spending? Evidence from Taxpayer Surveys," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 17, pages 83-110, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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