The Income of Central City and Suburban Migrants: A Case Study of the Washington, D.C. Metropolitan Area

The demographic and urban literature on the decline of central cities often asserts that the cities’ population losses have been especially heavy for middle and upper income households. Attracting middle and upper income residents, and retaining those who live there currently, is then viewed as a crucial ingredient to rebuilding the tax base and civic life of these cities. This paper examines empirically the income and population of the District of Columbia and surrounding Maryland and Virginia suburbs with tax return information. I find that the District's lowest and moderate income taxpayers have been leaving along with two earner couples of relatively modest means. Upper middle and upper income households ($100-500,000 of federal AGI) have generally stayed in the District, and their numbers have grown over the 1989-95 time period. These conclusions are based on a careful examination of the universe of federal and District tax return information and summary IRS migration data. These data suggest that issues affecting the migration decision may have to do more with service efficacy issues (education and public safety) than income tax issues per se.