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Consumption, household portfolios and the housing market in France

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  • Valérie Chauvin
  • John Muellbauer

Abstract

[eng] Consumption and wealth may co-move because of shifts in credit conditions, interest rates, income expectations or demographics whose impact should be identified to disentangle wealth effects. The findings for France from a 6-equation model for consumption and the main elements of household portfolios are that marginal propensities to consume financial wealth are comparable to those in the US or the UK, but housing wealth effects are far weaker, and aggregate consumption falls with higher house prices relative to income. This is interpreted as the need for households in France then to save more if they wish to become homeowners or can expect rents to increase in the future. The estimates suggest that during the French house price boom between 1996 and 2008, offsets from the negative effect of higher house prices and higher debt neutralized the positive effects of higher housing wealth and easier credit on consumption, evading the amplifying feedbacks, via consumption, of the US boom.

Suggested Citation

  • Valérie Chauvin & John Muellbauer, 2018. "Consumption, household portfolios and the housing market in France," Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (INSEE), issue 500-501-5, pages 157-178.
    • Handle: RePEc:nse:ecosta:ecostat_2018_500-501-502_9
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.24187/ecostat.2018.500t.1950
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    Cited by:

    1. Bertrand Garbinti & Pierre Lamarche & Frédérique Savignac, 2024. "Wealth Heterogeneity and the Marginal Propensity to Consume out of Wealth," Working papers 962, Banque de France.
    2. Federica Ciocchetta & Elisa Guglielminetti & Alessandro Mistretta, 2024. "What Drives House Prices in Europe?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 86(5), pages 1089-1121, October.
    3. Laura Jaramillo & Alexandre Chailloux, 2015. "It’s Not All Fiscal: Effects of Income, Fiscal Policy, and Wealth on Private Consumption," IMF Working Papers 2015/112, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Garbinti, Bertrand & Lamarche, Pierre & Savignac, Frédérique & Lecanu, Charlélie, 2020. "Wealth effect on consumption during the sovereign debt crisis: households heterogeneity in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2357, European Central Bank.
    5. Tim Congdon, 2021. "Can central banks run out of ammunition? The role of the money‐equities‐interaction channel in monetary policy," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(1), pages 21-37, February.
    6. Ruben Tarne & Dirk Bezemer & Thomas Theobald, 2021. "The Effect of borrower-specific Loan-to-Value policies on household debt, wealth inequality and consumption volatility," IMK Working Paper 212-2021, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    7. John Muellbauer, 2018. "Housing, Debt and the Economy: A Tale of Two Countries," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 245(1), pages 20-33, August.
    8. De Bonis, Riccardo & Liberati, Danilo & Muellbauer, John & Rondinelli, Concetta, 2023. "Why net worth is the wrong concept for explaining consumption: evidence from Italy," CEPR Discussion Papers 18597, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Bove Guillaume & Dees Stéphane & Thubin Camille, 2020. "House Prices, Mortgage Debt Dynamics and Economic Fluctuations in France: A Semi-Structural Approach," Working papers 787, Banque de France.
    10. Muellbauer, John, 2016. "Macroeconomics and Consumption," CEPR Discussion Papers 11588, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5udjblpuik8sp8d8qljh06m7ng is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Menno Schellekens & Taha Yasseri, 2021. "Credit Crunch: The Role of Household Lending Capacity in the Dutch Housing Boom and Bust 1995-2018," Papers 2101.00913, arXiv.org.
    13. John Muellbauer, 2012. "When is a Housing Market Overheated Enough to Threaten Stability?," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Alexandra Heath & Frank Packer & Callan Windsor (ed.),Property Markets and Financial Stability, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    14. John Muellbauer, 2024. "Housing and Macroprudential Policy," Economics Series Working Papers 1056, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    15. Muellbauer, John & Geiger, Felix & Rupprecht, Manuel, 2016. "The housing market, household portfolios and the German consumer," Working Paper Series 1904, European Central Bank.
    16. David F. Hendry, 2020. "A Short History of Macro-econometric Modelling," Economics Papers 2020-W01, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    17. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5udjblpuik8sp8d8qljh06m7ng is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Tarne, Ruben & Bezemer, Dirk & Theobald, Thomas, 2022. "The effect of borrower-specific loan-to-value policies on household debt, wealth inequality and consumption volatility: An agent-based analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    19. John Muellbauer, 2019. "A Tale of Two Cities: Is Overvaluation a Capital Issue?," Springer Books, in: Rob Nijskens & Melanie Lohuis & Paul Hilbers & Willem Heeringa (ed.), Hot Property, chapter 0, pages 51-62, Springer.
    20. Riccardo De Bonis & Danilo Liberati & John Muellbauer & Concetta Rondinelli, 2020. "Consumption and wealth: new evidence from Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1304, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    21. John Muellbauer & Pierre St-Amant & David Williams, 2015. "Credit Conditions and Consumption, House Prices and Debt: What Makes Canada Different?," Staff Working Papers 15-40, Bank of Canada.
    22. John Muellbauer, 2015. "Housing and the Macroeconomy: Inflation and the Financial Accelerator," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(S1), pages 51-58, March.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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